AccuWeather.com

The WeatherMatrix Blog

Are You There Snow? It's Me, Jesse

Feb 27, 2012; 9:44 AM ET

The buzz around my stepdaughter's school this winter here in Central Pennsylvania has been the lack of snow (and snow days -- not a single one). For her 3rd grade science project, we decided to compare the local snowfall so far this winter (Oct. 1 - Jan. 31), with temperatures and snow days. The State College Area School District was unable to provide the snow day stats in time, so we just looked at the weather for the last 10 winters.

What we found, as you can see from the graphs below, was that it was unusually warm and snow-less this year in State College, but it's far from unprecedented -- the 2006-2007 season had less snow and was warmer through Jan. 31! People have short memories. The other correlation we made was that warmer temperatures (compared to normal) led to less snowfall (not surprising to me, but a good use of the scientific method). Presumably, there would have been a correlation between more snow and more snow days as well.

Below is the project, in her words:

Introduction: Question: Why haven't we had any snow days this season? Is this winter unusual? People keep asking "Where's the snow? Is this winter normal for State College?" So I decided to look at recent years of weather of the season of State College from 2002-2012.

Methodology : I collected monthly snowfall and temperature for Penn State, from AccuWeather.com to find out about the winters between 2002-2012. I entered this data into EXCEL. Because this winter is not over, I could only look at October through February. Then I compared the data using bar graphs.

Conclusion: From the data collected I determined that there was less snow this season than seven out of ten winters that I looked at, but more than 2004-2005 and 2006- 2007. This season was also the 2nd warmest but 2006-2007 was warmer. In conclusion, this winter was not the least snowy in the last 10 years. Also, warmer years usually mean less snow.

Updating the data and graphs for the October - February period (because what good Dad wouldn't), now we're seeing something more impressive -- the continued lack of snow has put 2011-2012 in the #1 spot (by a hair) for least snowy winter, and (by far) the warmest winter in the last ten.

But for Penn State's extensive weather record, this winter is not as impressive. They say that the record least snow for a Cold Season (July-June) was 1979-1980 with 17.9 inches, and we already have 19 inches this year, placing us in 98th place (out of 117 - higher numbers meaning less snow). So we'll probably have to get no snow for the rest of the season be in the top 10 least snowy years.

How likely is that? I didn't have stats from Penn State for the entire record, but for the last 10 years, it's statistically possible. It happened in 2009 and nearly in 2010 (only 0.8"), but interestingly enough, in the minimum winter snow season 2006-2007, another 17.1" fell after March 1st -- the most of any year examined, and nearly half the seasonal total.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

blogs Home >

Comments

Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

J's Breaking Weather News

WeatherMatrix on Facebook

More Jesse Ferrell

A Tale of Two Rivers: Flood and Drought in Brazil

May 25, 2012; 11:15 AM ET

In northern Brazil, record flooding on the Rio Negro took place last week, while on the other end of the country, record drought was seen on the Lower Rio Sinos.

A Record Early Hurricane Season?

May 23, 2012; 10:39 AM ET

Both the Atlantic and East Pacific tropical seasons got an early start; could Tropical Storm Bud become the earliest East Pacific major hurricane on record?

Eight Days and Weak: Blogitis, Silent Sirens, Other News

May 18, 2012; 12:50 PM ET

So I haven't blogged in over a week -- at least I had my nose in a book. Plus: What you missed it you're not following me on social media!

Strange Vertical Sunset Clouds in Pittsburgh

May 10, 2012; 12:37 PM ET

There were strange clouds sighted last night at sunset in Pittsburgh. The clouds looked like tornadoes, but I've had experience with these.

LRR and Tornado Eye: Interesting Weather Radar Images

May 8, 2012; 2:41 PM ET

I've got a story about a newly-discovered supercell thunderstorm component, and a radar image that may show the eye of a tornado.

500,000 Lightning Strikes Provide Awesome Photos

May 3, 2012; 12:59 PM ET

Already this week, over half a million lightning strikes have hit the Earth over the U.S., making for incredible lightning photographs across the nation.

Incredible Photos, Videos of a Tornado in France

Apr 30, 2012; 10:00 AM ET

Beautiful pictures of a tornado were captured in Southwest France Sunday. I show the photos and videos, as well as a radar image.

Maps: Tennessee MCS Shoves on through

Apr 26, 2012; 11:55 AM ET

A terrifying-looking Mesoscale Convective System moved through Kentucky and Tennessee and into North Carolina this morning, and I've captured its lifecycle on maps.

Which Storm Took Down Myer-Womble Observatory?

Apr 25, 2012; 12:41 PM ET

High winds at 14,000 feet took out the U.S.'s highest observatory this winter, but when did it happen? I investigate observations from nearby stations.

April Appalachian Snow Photos and Timelapse

Apr 23, 2012; 1:18 PM ET

The April Appalachian snow event is underway, and I've got photos and two awesome timelapse videos.

Models on Possible Bookend Northeast Snowstorm

Apr 20, 2012; 9:28 AM ET

The models are starting to agree on a possible "bookend" snowstorm in the Northeast in a few days, but first, the front with a possible squall line.

Behind the Scenes: NWS Spring Media Workshop

Apr 19, 2012; 1:37 PM ET

It was a pleasure to attend the NWS "Spring 2012 Media Workshop" today. We discussed River Forecasting / Drought Status, Forecasting PA Thunderstorms and Social Media.

Harrisburg, Columbia Flood Comparison Photos

Apr 17, 2012; 11:02 AM ET

The trick with getting flood photos to look impressive is to compare them to the same place when it's dry. Last week I revisited the 2011 Pennsylvania Flood areas to compare.

Don't Have A Cow: Simpsons Springfield Weather

Apr 11, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

The Simpsons live in Springfield, but what state? It would seem that Matt Groening has now set the record straight, but whither the weather featured in the show?

Pennsylvania Spring 2011 vs. Spring 2012, in Photos

Apr 11, 2012; 12:13 PM ET

Every spring, people say that flowers & trees are coming out earlier than last year. This year, they really are and I set out to prove it, by comparing photos I took in 2011 to 2012.