More on the Southwest Storms

I promised something on how much rain Arizona would be getting today, and I will give some of that here. There has been little change in thinking for California weather from tonight through Sunday and Mondayso to save time I will refer you back to yesterday's entry. Lastly, there are more model shenanigans for next week. Pass the Advil please.

First, the weather already has thrown one curve ball. The first storm moving out last night into today ended up being a lot wetter than any model had yesterday. Rain amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch were very common in southwestern California with a few places in the mountains getting 1 to 2 inches. Remember earlier in the week, the European was big on the rain. However, yesterday it had backed off and only brought this area less than 0.10. The usually suspect NAM at least had 0.50 of an inch. That storm is now gone but a new cut off has reformed west of southern California and is now moving a little southwest.

This low will keep a moist flow moving into central and southern California and Arizona through tomorrow. The low then moves east later tomorrow into tomorrow night moving across northwest most Mexico by Saturday morning then across Arizona Saturday into Saturday night. This is likely to bring more rain with much of it in southern California later tomorrow into tomorrow night then Arizona Saturday and Saturday night. The map below shows how much rain the GFS brings to the area from Thursday morning through Saturday night. I believe the rain may be underdone in southern California but pretty close in Arizona.

Again refer to what will happen Sunday into Monday from yesterday's entry, but another huge model difference all of a sudden appeared on today's models. After agreeing things dry out in California and southern and western Arizona by Tuesday from last night's runs and the 12Z GFS came in with a similar solution, I was feeling pretty confident. Then the European came in. Instead of showing a progressive trough it cuts off another low just off the south-central California coast Tuesday and move it a little more south-southwest Wednesday. If this is right more rain would be in order. Below are the comparisons with the first model being the GFS and the second the European.

Monday:

Tuesday:

At this point it’s another wait and see game. The GFS was the more the winner the last time with the overall pattern. We will see about this one.