I must take a little time explaining to my loyal readers why I have not been around for the last month. First, I am well and that is the good news. Second, because of some shifting of work schedules over the last month, my daily forecasting duties drastically changed. This left me with virtually no time to spend researching and writing my blog. I put a lot of pride in my blog and the information I give. I felt that I could not put the kind of time necessary to put up quality posts to the level that I expect and you have come to enjoy. However, it seems the long shift of duties has come to an end. Hopefully, you will see a much more regular posting schedule from me now.
Today, the talk continues to be about the big story of the summer, fires. One of the hardest-hit areas, the Pacific Northwest, continues to experience the brunt of the fires. Here is a map of the current large incident fires.
All these fires continue to produce a lot of smoke in the air from the Cascades on east. Weak flow aloft, plus nightly inversions, will keep a lot of smoke in the air all of this week extending east through Montana and Wyoming and even as far south as parts of Utah and Colorado.
There are some interesting statistics coming out of the fire season so far this year. Here is how this year, 2012, compares to previous years back to 2003 in the amount of fires and acres burned.
In that time this year has actually had fewer fires than any other over the last 10 years. However, the acreage burned is the second most with 2006 only slightly edging out this year, but in 2006, there were 44 percent more fires. Fewer fires, and in some cases far fewer fires, have burned an extraordinarily large amount of acres. In other words the fires this year have been huge in coverage.
There is still a lot of fire season to go. It will easily extend through much of October in the Southwest. In fact, the worst of the fires season comes with the Santa Ana winds of October/November across California.
Parts of Southern California are likely to have temperatures near 90 degrees again by Monday and Tuesday.
A prolonged rain-free pattern is setting in.
By this time in 1998 there was twice as much rain that had occurred to date compared to 2015-2016.
Could an unusual El Nino precipitation pattern be as simple as looking at the state of water temperatures?
One thing that I find interesting is that the pattern since fall has not been your typical El Nino storm pattern.
There are signs of a possible stormier pattern beginning the week of Jan. 18.