Weekly long range clues into March
Below is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long range forecast model along with input from other data.
I feel that most of the cold in Ontario and the U.S. Midwest will be during the second half of the Feb 22nd-28th week after a few days of milder weather in the first half of the week.
1. Western high pressure ridge expected to rebuild at the end of the month and into early March, which forces Pacific storms into southeastern Alaska, leaving the region drier than normal.
2. If the western ridge builds far enough north there will likely be some waves of cold coming down through the eastern Prairies and into the east.
3. Overall pattern would favor main storm track in the east to stretch from the Southern U.S. and then up into Atlantic Canada with opportunities for more snowfall from Quebec into the interior Maritimes and western Newfoundland.
4. Second half of March may turn noticeably milder in the east as the cold air retreats and western ridge breaks down for a time.
Eastern storm early next week
Potential for a significant storm loaded with Gulf moisture to turn northward through the eastern U.S. Monday night and Tuesday and then possibly up into Quebec or western New Brunswick. Confidence in the track is still low at this point as there are many meteorological factors to consider that could alter the track and timing. At this point, the greatest chance for a significant snowfall appears to be up from the central/eastern Lake Ontario region and up into Ottawa and possibly as far east as Montreal. Areas east of Montreal to Quebec and into interior New Brunswick could see a snow to ice situation. Snow to a windswept rain likely for the coastal Maritimes. Uncertain if the western edge of the steady snow gets back to Toronto and Hamilton.
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