Updated Computer Model Monthly Forecast through March

Be sure to follow me on my twitter account for quick updates on the weather patternBrettAWX

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Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF model monthly outlook which is updated around the 15th of each month. I will cover the model projections for mean pattern during January, February and March 2012.

The model is still showing no real blocking in the far north (absence of -AO and -NAO) through the winter months. With a lack of blocking, which is what we have been seeing much of November and December, the coldest air mostly resides in the far north or western Canada, with quick in and out appearances across the eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. Also, a common storm track up toward the Great Lakes.

Whether or not the blocking (cold gets forced much farther south and locks in) actually returns for an extended period is still up in the air. From what I have been looking at, I am pretty confident that the AO and NAO will remain mostly in the positive zone through the end of the month, but some stratospheric warming approaching northwestern Canada could POSSIBLY enhance some blocking during January.

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I saw some of the comments in regards to the snow cover map that I posted the other day. Here is the new snow cover map from NOAA, which again says that there is snow on the ground in Ottawa which is not correct. Obviously, the NOAA map has some issues (poor resolution/input). My main reason for posted that graphic was to show the big difference in snow cover in the east from exactly one year ago to current.

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