Here is my summer forecast for Canada, which includes June, July and August.
Based on current and past surface observations, analogs and computer model data, indications are strongest for a very warm to hot summer across the southern Prairies.
Below-normal water temperatures off the west coast should lead to near or slightly cooler temperatures over British Columbia, but rainfall should be near normal.
Fewer thunderstorms than normal are expected over the Rockies. On the other hand, I believe there will be a greater number of thunderstorms over northeastern Ontario and Quebec.
Southeast winds will be more prevalent over Newfoundland, leading to more clouds and fog, which means warmer nights compared to normal. The summer will be more humid. I also think eastern Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland will have 1 or 2 tropical storms having at least some impact in August, which will have a big impact on the precipitation departure.
Model guidance and analogs clearly favor more widespread above-normal temperatures compared to below-normal temperatures over Canada as a whole.
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If you have any questions, feel free to post them in the comment section below and I will try to answer them, or you can email me right here.
A large storm clashing with warmth and higher humidity will lead to heavy rainfall and locally severe thunderstorms over the Prairies the next couple of days.
Potential for localized rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm (4 inches) over western Alberta this week....
Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly update that goes into mid-July.....
Potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night.
What the latest ECMWF seasonal forecast output shows for July, August and September...
Below is my interpretation of last night's release of the latest ECMWF model weeklies that now go out through the first week of July.
Brett Anderson
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