Please follow me on my twitter @BrettAWX for quick updates on this storm through this evening. I am working a radio broadcasting shift this afternoon so my time to blog is limited. I will also be happy to answer some questions on my twitter as time allows.
Some observations in regards to the storm today/tonight.....(not enough time for me to draw up my own map today)
1. The storm has ended up being stronger as a tremendous amount of energy coming in with the polar vortex is helping to feed the storm. As I mentioned earlier, if the storm ended up stronger it would also track farther west and that seems to be the case.
2. This slight westward shift will mean less snow for the northeast shore areas of Lake Erie, the Niagara region, Hamilton and Toronto as the snow will change over to a mix or rain this evening or later tonight.
3. At this point, I am leaning toward 8 cm or less from Hamilton to Niagara before the changeover and about 10 cm in Toronto before a change to freezing rain and poss. plain rain around midnight or so.
4. The mix/rain line will likely end up about 100 km north and west of where I had it on my map from Friday..earlier blog with map.
5. Axis of heaviest snow (around 30 cm from the storm) will end up from near Windsor to Sarnia to Goderich to Owen Sound/Collingwood to Bracebridge/Huntsville/Parry Sound then Pembroke in Ontario.
6. Snow will change to sleet/ice in Ottawa area very late this evening then likely over to plain rain (+1 C) for a time in the early morning hours of Monday before temps plummet Monday afternoon.
7. Not much snow for Montreal as it will change to sleet/ice before midnight then likely plain rain overnight as temps nudge above freezing.
8. There could be several hours of sleet and freezing rain overnight into early Monday morning for areas north and east of Montreal, including Quebec City as surface temperatures do not get above freezing, while temperatures aloft warm well above freezing.
9. Bitter cold and wind follow this storm Monday through Tuesday and I will go over the Lake-effect stuff/cold on my next update.
10. Minus 37 C. this morning in Winnipeg and that air mass is aimed toward eastern Canada with wind!
Some needed rainfall for southern Ontario this week.
Mild air masses likely to outnumber the chilly air masses for a good part of October.
Jet stream pattern across North America will become amplified across North America into next week, which means more extremes in weather.
Warm weather will dominate in the eastern half of the country for the next week. Pattern change possible during the last week of September.
The jet stream will strengthen from the Pacific across southern Canada over the next 1-2 weeks which will keep any sustained chilly/cold air masses up across western Alaska and eastern Siberia.
The latest clues to the long range into the month of October.