Stubborn upper-level low off the BC coast will continue to send several more disturbances into the West Coast through the weekend and perhaps early next week, leading to heavy coastal rainfall, while the high country gets more snow.
One of those storms will maintain strength as it tracks across the mountains and into the Prairies Sunday evening and into early Monday. This storm will produce a narrow band of accumulating snow to the north of the storm track. Right now, there are some significant model differences with the track, but at this time I would say that the best chance of accumulation is from Regina, Sask. and points ENE into Manitoba. Not a big storm, but enough to produce some travel problems.
Speaking of the Prairies, I saw that the current snowcover today is much more extensive and deeper across a large portion of the Prairies compared to last year on this date. This could be one of the keys to sustaining these Arctic air outbreaks as they go into the U.S. and eastern Canada. Last year, a lack of snow cover over the Prairies certainly took a toll on the cold air masses and they modified quickly as they came south over the bare ground.
A very weak disturbance combined with a stalled front will lead to a short period of light snow Friday over parts of Ontario. Expect little, if any, accumulation as the flakes will be too small and too few.
1. Rather mild across the southern Prairies early next week, but....
2. Core of Arctic air will cover much of northwestern Canada this weekend then should make a move into a large part of BC and most of the Prairies late next week.
3. Cold may get into the east after Dec. 10, but I would not be surprised if it is delayed until after Dec. 15.
4. No signs of El Nino for this winter as it will be near-neutral.
Some needed rainfall for southern Ontario this week.
Mild air masses likely to outnumber the chilly air masses for a good part of October.
Jet stream pattern across North America will become amplified across North America into next week, which means more extremes in weather.
Warm weather will dominate in the eastern half of the country for the next week. Pattern change possible during the last week of September.
The jet stream will strengthen from the Pacific across southern Canada over the next 1-2 weeks which will keep any sustained chilly/cold air masses up across western Alaska and eastern Siberia.
The latest clues to the long range into the month of October.