Snowstorm Accumulation Update, Arctic Air and February

Here is our latest forecast update for the snowstorm that is underway in Newfoundland.....

The heaviest snow for the St. John's area will be this evening through tonight, then varying intensity Friday morning as some drier air tries to mix in. After 3 or 4 p.m. Friday, enough milder air will work in off the ocean for a change to intermittent light rain through Friday evening, but not before we see a general 30-40 cm in St. John's. I still feel there will be some rain during the height of the storm down toward the Cape Race area. Strong winds will also be an issue.

An updated map for the expected snowfall across the southern Prairies into northwestern Ontario from tonight through Saturday morning....

Below is a map showing the expected arrival times of the true Arctic air for next week.......

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For what it's worth, the once-a-month CPC experimental multi-model ensemble forecast (NMME) was just released and below is the latest temperature anomaly forecast for February 2013.

The NMME takes into account several long range models to come up with its forecast.....

Two particular models that are incorporated into the NMME forecast are the GFDL and the NCAR models. Note how those two February temperature anomaly forecasts are almost the exact opposite of each other... certainly not a great confidence booster. I guess the NMME put more weight into the GFDL!

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