This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long range model output for North America......
The model indicates a significant pattern change across Canada for the last 10 days of March as the high pressure blocking that has persisted across much of central and northeastern Canada during the winter is projected to completely break down during the period, which means temperatures should go back to or slightly below normal for large parts of northern and central Canada.
Mean pattern for the week of March 22-28
--Warmer and drier than normal from Alaska through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.
--Below-normal precipitation across the Prairies.
--Slightly colder than normal over north-central Canada, and colder than normal over the southern Prairies.
--Chilly pattern over the central U.S. Plains, and wetter over the southern and central Plains.
--Slightly wetter over California.
--Colder and stormier from the Midwest and Great Lakes into Ontario and western Quebec.
--Warmer and drier over Florida.
--Temps and precip close to normal over the eastern United States.
--Temperatures above-normal over Atlantic Canada with near-normal precipitation amounts.
March 29- April 4
Another pattern change.....
--Rather stormy over Alaska.
--Cooler and wetter than normal over the southwestern United States.
--Temperatures and precipitation near-normal over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.
--Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation from the Prairies through eastern Canada.
--Above-normal temperatures from the southern and central Plains through the Southeastern states.
--Above-normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall from the Midwest through the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic region.
--Warmer and drier than normal over the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
--Temperatures close to normal and drier over the Maritimes.
--Drier with near-normal temps over Newfoundland.
Very little change from the previous week, except.....
--Milder over British Columbia.
--Well above-normal temperatures for Ontario.
--Above-normal precipitation from the northern U.S. Plains to the eastern Prairies.
I am working on my spring forecast, and it will be posted before the week is over.
Update on the white Christmas probabilities
Update on white Christmas probabilities and other thoughts.
Update on White Christmas probabilities for Canada
Update on the long-range forecast model data.
A look a the storm systems that could impact Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Canada.
What are your current chances for a white Christmas?