A large area of Arctic air will continue to expand deep into the central and western U.S. into the weekend. The image below shows the projected temperature departures in F. for early Friday with a large area have temperatures at least 30 F. or 17 C. below normal.
The main reason for this sustained push of very cold air is the strong upper-level high that has been sitting just south of Alaska (see below)...
The combination of wind and very low temperatures will make it feel dangerously cold tonight across portions of the southern Prairies and into the northern U.S. Plains.
There will likely be additional waves of Arctic air spilling down into northern BC and the Prairies through the middle of the month.
Potential wintry mix Sunday night into Monday in the East
Strong energy dropping into the Southwest U.S. this weekend will help draw a wave of low pressure up toward the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday.
The track of this primary storm would normally allow milder air to be drawn northward into Ontario and Quebec. However, in front of this storm will be an Arctic high pressure system that will not easily back down and thus there is the potential for accumulating snow spreading up through southern Ontario Sunday night then into Quebec and New Brunswick on Monday.
Eventually, enough "mild" air may work in aloft to change the snow over to sleet or freezing rain, especially from SW Ontario through the Saint Lawrence Valley with the potential for a sustained period of ice or sleet.
My suspicion at this point is that the bulk of the steadier precipitation out in front of this storm will be in the form of snow for most of eastern Canada and as the precipitation gets lighter it turns to sleet or freezing rain/drizzle.
Obviously it is still early and I will know more about the situation tomorrow and Friday.
No significant changes in thinking in regards to Gonzalo and a look at the latest long range models.
Update on Gonzalo as it heads to Bermuda then approaches southeast Newfoundland.
Heavy rainfall for Quebec Thursday and tracking Gonzalo.
Gonzalo a potential threat to Newfoundland this weekend and an updated look at the long range.
The latest on the updated forecast model output through the winter months.
Weekly long range forecast model interpretation through early November.