Potential for Snow and Long-Range Update

An early-season polar front likely dropping south through the Prairies early next week will send temperatures on a nosedive across the region with the potential for some snow.

The two ECMWF forecast model maps below shows near surface temperatures for Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon in degrees C.

Once the colder air moves in the combination of an upper-level disturbance and a weak, upslope flow will lead to light to moderate precipitation late Monday into Tuesday with a change to snow first in the Alberta mountains and foothills then perhaps even getting into the prairie as far east as Saskatchewan early Tuesday.

The ECMWF forecast model valid Tuesday below shows where there is the potential for frozen precipitation (snow) in blue.

Keep in mind, even if there is snow in the Prairie Tuesday, most of it will just melt on roads. I do think there is a much higher potential for accumulation above 4,500 feet in southwestern Alberta.

Regardless of the snow, next week is going to be unusually chilly by September standards across the Prairies. There may be just enough clouds and wind to prevent widespread frost/freeze, but we will have a better idea on that in a few days.

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Here is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long-range forecast model output into the first week of October.

You can also follow me for updates on my twitter @BrettAWX

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