Pick your Summer Forecast
When meteorologists make forecasts there are an assortment of computer model solutions that are available for us to use as a tool in making our own forecast. In terms of the upcoming summer outlook, which we will be releasing in May we have several models from around the world to look at and compare. Just for fun, I decided to post a handful models and what they are currently predicting for temperature and precipitation for the upcoming summer (J/J/A). These models will update again in May.
What I try to look for is a common theme among the models for a particular region.
Temperatures
Precipitation
In terms of precipitation anomalies there is typically much more variability in the model forecasts. However, there are two things that do stick out for this coming summer and the first is the consistency that we are seeing among the models for an active monsoon season in the U.S. Rockies (above-normal rainfall). Below-normal rainfall is also a common forecast theme for western BC.
Record seasonal snowfall for Prince Edward Island
It appears that Charlottetown, PEI has set a new seasonal snowfall record for the 2014/15 season. Unofficially, there has been 546 cm, which is just over 18 feet of snow! The previous seasonal record was 539 cm set back in the 1971/72 season.
The cold/snowy season has also had an impact on the lobster and ferry season across the region with many harbors still iced in, which has pushed back the start dates for the lobster and ferry seasons.
The recent high resolution satellite image from several days ago below still shows plenty of ice surrounding PEI, Cape Breton and smaller harbors.
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