I'm in the middle of conference sessions today in Colorado then heading home this afternoon. Hard to write a full blog so I have been tweeting some thoughts today...
The fairly consistent ECMWF forecast model position of the storm valid Monday.
I still favor a track taking a hybrid Sandy storm (still strong) making landfall along the Northeast coast early Monday anywhere from Ocean City, Md., to coastal Rhode Island, though climatology would argue for Long Island.
The global models will be much better than a model such as the NAM in this situation, especially beyond 48 hours.
Any snow with this storm (there could be a heavy, wet dump) will likely be confined to the higher elevations of the Appalachians and above 2,500 feet starting early Monday.
Significant flooding likely for areas north and west of the storm track Sunday/Monday with the potential for 8 inches of rain.
The strongest winds and the worst coastal erosion near and northeast of the storm center track as it approaches the coast early Monday.
Power outages likely as leaves still on trees near the coast.
If storm does move inland across the Middle Atlantic or southern New England then the Canadian Maritimes will be spared with just some rain, gusty winds, but still heavy coastal surf.
Even though Sandy will be downgraded and lose some tropical characteristics when it comes north the storm will still have a very low pressure resulting in a large field of strong winds with hurricane-force gusts.
Seas will be huge up and down the Eastern Seaboard this weekend.
You can also follow me on my twitter account @BrettAWX right here.
Forecast pattern clues through most of July.
Thunderstorms this weekend and a look at the long range.
Some new clues to the summer and fall season.
Amplified jet stream pattern will keep forecasters on their toes over the next week or so.
Weather pattern clues for the next several weeks.
A look back at May and the spring of 2016 in terms of temperature departures.