My Storm Snowfall Forecast

I was out of the office the past few days but will be back at AccuWeather tomorrow morning (Tue). Since we have the potential for a significant late-winter snowstorm in parts of eastern and Atlantic Canada I felt it was necessary to at least post my initial thoughts on how much snow could fall between Wednesday and Thursday.

I believe the intensifying storm will track from extreme southwestern Pennsylvania to southern New England then turn more north toward Nova Scotia during the period.

This will cause an initial period of snow to change over to rain over Nova Scotia and eastern PEI late Wednesday night.

Snow could mix with sleet or rain over southern New Brunswick and western PEI, while the highest accumulations will likely be over central and northern New Brunswick with potential whiteouts and high drifts due to increasing winds. Any slight shift north with the track will bring the heaviest snow into extreme south/southeast Quebec.

The northern edge of the heavier snow will likely get up into southern Ontario, especially south of a line from Toronto to Kitchener.

Since the bulk of the snow over southern Ontario will fall during the day Wednesday there will be a big difference in accumulations from non-paved to paved surfaces due to the strengthening March sun. The map above is for accumulations on non-paved surfaces.

Light to moderate snow during the middle of the day will mostly melt on main roads in southern/eastern Ontario, but if it gets heavy then all bets are off and road conditions could quickly deteriorate.

I will update you on the snow forecast later Tuesday as we get a better handle on the exact track of this storm which will be critical in terms of snowfall amounts.

You can also follow me for up to date comments on the impending storm via my twitter @BrettAWX

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