My latest thoughts on the weather pattern and potential storms

It was the second night in a row that my temperature dropped to +1 F under the influence of the strong high pressure center nearly overhead. If this was a normal winter with established snow cover, I probably would have dropped to somewhere between -5 and -10 F earlier this morning.

Even though it has been cold the past couple of days, I really can't complain as with the Arctic air and strong high pressure, we are enjoying plenty of sunshine, which was very tough to come by in December under the constant inversions and higher dewpoints.

Tonight should be another good night for snowmaking in the eastern ski country as temps will steadily drop tonight with low dewpoints and light winds.

Back to the overall weather pattern highlights that I see for the rest of this week and beyond.....

1. Arctic cold front coming through the southern Prairies tonight will be followed by a period of snow across southwestern Alberta as the air gets forced upward into the higher elevations. Very little upper support for much snow so we are generally looking about 2-8 cm across the region late tonight into Thursday with a few spots in the foothills possibly squeaking out a little more of the fluffy snow.

2. Milder air will be lifted over the colder dome over eastern Canada Friday night into Saturday morning (what we call warm advection) resulting in a period of light snow and possible mixed precipitation from north of Toronto to the Ottawa and Montreal region. Even though any snow accumulations will be generally less than 5 cm, the combination of the snow and possibly some ice on top of an already cold surface could lead to some slick spots across the above region. The best chance of 5-8 cm of snow will be in the higher elevations north of Montreal.

3. Once that warm advection band lifts north later Friday, it will open the door to the warmup, which will set the region up for a rain event Saturday night over southern Ontario then into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec on Sunday. A secondary area of low pressure will try to develop just east of the Appalachians and this will enhance the rainfall Saturday night and Sunday from eastern New York and New England and up into Quebec and New Brunswick with the potential for 25 to 35 mm of rain along with gusty southeast winds.

4. Behind this storm system the Arctic front will push eastward through the Great Lakes later Sunday and into Monday with steadily dropping temperatures and a return to lake-effect snow.

The primary time period for this upcoming lake-effect snow event looks to be from Sunday night into Monday night. This will mostly be a west to east wind event, which will bring the heaviest snowfall to areas just south of Buffalo, New York, in the Tug Hill region of New York and from in the areas due east of Georgian Bay. There will also be moderate accumulations from the Bruce Peninsula to the Goderich area of Ontario.

5. Still early in the game, but strong southern branch jet energy may end up phasing with the northern branch jet resulting in a possible coastal storm during the middle of next week. Areas under the threat for a decent accumulation of snow appear to be Maine, New Brunswick and extreme eastern Quebec. The storm track may end up being too far west for PEI and Nova Scotia, resulting in a snow to mix or rain event. We should have a much clearer picture on this potential event by this weekend.

Longer range...

1. A second surge of Arctic air into the Prairies late Friday into early Sunday will cause temperatures to average anywhere from 6 to 12 degrees Celsius below normal for the period.

This same air mass eventually gets to the east between Jan. 13 and 15, but it will be modified so temperature departures will be more like 4 to 8 C below normal.

2. Wetter pattern shaping up for BC between Jan. 13 and 20 as the jet shifts back to the north and sends more moisture into the region. This will also lead to more snow for BC ski country.

3. Overall, Manitoba through Quebec will be drier than normal for the third/fourth weeks of January with the primary steering flow coming from the west-northwest. However, this type of pattern will lead to some clipper storms which bring mostly lighter snowfall due to a lack of moisture. Also expect a few more rounds of lake-effect snow. The main threat for bigger storms (ones with heavier precipitation) will remain across Atlantic Canada during the period.

4. By the way, NOAA confirmed yesterday that this current El Nino has tied the 1997-98 El Nino for strongest on record (Oct/Nov/Dec ONI of +2.3). We will have to wait until February to see if it surpasses it as well.

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