My Forecast for February
Here is my outlook for February 2012 across Canada.
1. Most of the bitter, cold Arctic air will remain on the other side of the pole across Siberia. However, there will be some short-term intrusions of very cold air, especially across the eastern half of the country mixed in with some periods of milder weather.
2. A more dominant southwest flow aloft over western Canada will lead to above-normal temperatures across the interior, with less snowfall than normal east of the divide and through the Prairies.
3. Western BC may turn slightly cold for a short time the second half of the month.
4. I expect above-normal snowfall for February from central Ontario to western Newfoundland.
5. Still expect excellent skiing conditions across the Canadian Rockies through March.
6. Based on the unusually dry and mild winter across the eastern Prairies so far, the threat of major spring flooding along the rivers is lower than normal in my opinion.
Obviously, the original winter forecast for a cold winter across the western Prairies will end up as the biggest bust, regardless of what happens in February as the high temperature departures since Dec. 1 cannot be reversed by one month of temperatures.
A near-record, strong, unusually long duration, positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation from December through early January allowed a strong westerly flow of air off the Pacific to dominate, cutting off the Arctic air to the north. Our original forecast for the winter in this region was based on strong analog and computer model consensus. Ocean water temperatures, the cold PDO and La Nina were also factored in, but it seems that the positive AO basically overwhelmed most of the other variables.
I have to say that the analogs were basically useless for this winter. The ECMWF seasonal model forecasts were good in showing a lack of blocking for the bulk of this winter, but ended up too cold for western Canada.
The AO is now negative, but the core of the Arctic air is already heading back toward Siberia from Alaska once again, so most of the cold outbreaks in February will be more run of the mill.
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