Mild pattern likely to persist through end of month
Below is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model weeklies.
Despite some high latitude blocking, the forecast model continues the idea that milder, Pacific air will continue to flood much of the country through the end of the month, with just brief incursions of cold air from the north. A strong trough over the north Pacific is the dominant factor right now and it will likely remain that way for the next 2-3 weeks.
The problem for those who want to see a sustained outbreak of cold air is the fact that the core of the Arctic air is currently on the other side of the pole (over Siberia) and there are no immediate signs that it will shift to our side of the pole. Until we see a shift in the North Pacific pattern it will be very difficult to get Arctic air into southern Canada and the northern U.S.
The image below shows the GFS projected temperature anomalies for the 5-day period ending Tuesday next week. Note that the real cold air is over Siberia, while much of Canada remains warmer than normal. The polar region will continue to see well above-normal temperatures.
