Long Range Model Outlook through Christmas

The latest ECMWF model weeklies now go out through the Christmas holiday.

I see that the model has backed off on the cold in the East, which is likely due to the fact that the idea of a blocking pattern setting up across Greenland from last week is now less likely, at least according to this particular model run.

The above idea may indeed have some merit as there is still no indication of any stratospheric warming events starting up in the far north, which can signal a sustained blocking pattern a few weeks down the road.

Based on a number of factors I believe this model and others are having a difficult time figuring out the extended pattern and I would expect to see more flipping and flopping of the model in the next week or two.

The ENSO is near neutral and the MJO is weak, so there is less for a long range model to grasp on to.

Anyway, for what it is worth, below is the latest ECMWF update..........