Long-Range Model Indicates Early Spring for Many

This is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long-range forecast model, which now goes out into the second week of March.

The model continues to keep the arctic air trapped either over western Alaska or over Siberia into the first half of March. After looking at the latest stratospheric temperature forecast for the northern latitudes over the next 10 days, it appears that this ECMWF forecast would make at least some sense as widespread cooling is expected around the pole and into northern Canada, which would support more of a positive Arctic Oscillation late in February and into March, which is similar to conditions we saw in December and January. The positive AO usually traps the coldest air across the far north and allows milder, Pacific air to overwhelm much of the country.

Even though the pattern looks relatively mild over the next few weeks in the eastern half of Canada that does not mean it will not snow. Obviously, lake-effect snowfall looks below normal from here on out, but there will be more storms with decent snowfall through March across eastern Canada... I am sure of it.