This is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long-range forecast model, which now goes out into the second week of March.
The model continues to keep the arctic air trapped either over western Alaska or over Siberia into the first half of March. After looking at the latest stratospheric temperature forecast for the northern latitudes over the next 10 days, it appears that this ECMWF forecast would make at least some sense as widespread cooling is expected around the pole and into northern Canada, which would support more of a positive Arctic Oscillation late in February and into March, which is similar to conditions we saw in December and January. The positive AO usually traps the coldest air across the far north and allows milder, Pacific air to overwhelm much of the country.
Even though the pattern looks relatively mild over the next few weeks in the eastern half of Canada that does not mean it will not snow. Obviously, lake-effect snowfall looks below normal from here on out, but there will be more storms with decent snowfall through March across eastern Canada... I am sure of it.
A look at the weather pattern across Canada into next week.
This is the AccuWeather.com fall forecast for Canada, which includes the months of September, October and November 2014.
A pattern shift later next week and a look at the potential weather into mid-September.
Significant rain coming for Quebec and a look back at July.
Smoke and haze and a look at the long range into early September.
A more typical August weather pattern will shape up for Canada by next week as the jet stream retreats farther north and weakens a bit.