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Weather Blogs / Canadian weather

Latest thoughts on storms and the overall pattern

By Staff

Published Jan 20, 2016 5:13 PM EDT | Updated Jan 20, 2016 5:06 PM EDT

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All eyes in the eastern United States continue to be focused on the impending blizzard for parts of the Middle Atlantic region Friday night into Saturday night, including the Washington, D.C., area. I have had a number of inquiries on my twitter page @BrettAWX in regards to potential impacts from the above storm in the Maritimes.

Latest computer model trends are going for a near-miss on Sunday for the Maritimes as a weak upper trough (shown by dashed red line on map below) prevents the large storm over the Middle Atlantic states from turning north and keeps it moving more toward the east or east-northeast late in the weekend and into Monday. If the storm does indeed miss Nova Scotia, then it will most likely remain south of Newfoundland as well.

590x371_01202023_screen-shot-2016-01-20-at-3

The storm also peaks in intensity on Saturday near the U.S. East Coast then becomes occluded. Once the storm occludes, the upward motion within the storm begins to diminish, and drier air can get entrained into the circulation, reducing the intensity of precipitation.

At this point, there is still the slight chance that the northern edge of the snow may impact Nova Scotia along with some wind, but any accumulations would be light as the best precipitation remains out at sea to the south.

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A series of fronts will bring significant rainfall to the BC coast Thursday and Friday. Heavy snow will once again fall across the Coastal Range and into the BC Rockies. Certainly a great ski season for the West!

A much weaker storm system will track from the Prairies to eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday. This storm will generally produce 2-8 cm of snow from the eastern Prairies through Ontario and into Quebec and New Brunswick on its path to the east.

West-northwest flow aloft could bring a series of Alberta Clipper storms from Manitoba to Ontario and southern Quebec both Thursday and again Friday of next week. Typically, the majority of snowfall with clipper systems fall just north of the storm track and is usually less than 12 cm. It's still a little too early to pinpoint exact track of these two potential clipper storms.

West of the clipper track there will be a significant warm-up across the western Prairies late next week with temperatures well above normal. This mild air mass will likely spread into southeastern Canada and the eastern U.S. between Jan. 31 and Feb. 3, while at the same time cold air spreads back into the far West.

Week of Feb. 1-7 looks fairly dry across the Prairie region.

By the week of Feb. 8-14, the primary storm track shifts more north into northern BC. In the East, we may see a more active pattern as the jet stream may be more directed up the Eastern Seaboard, leading to an increased chance of storminess in the eastern U.S., Quebec and the Maritimes.

Signs continue to point toward a possible significant stratospheric warming event over the polar region (SSW) at the end of this month, which could eventually translate into a cold pattern from mid- to late February from the southern Prairies and U.S. Plains on eastward into eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. Details are still pretty fuzzy at this point, but I will keep you posted.

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Canadian weather
Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada.
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