The storm system currently affecting the southern U.S. will remain moving at a quick pace through Thursday, which means the storm does not have enough time to strengthen and turn more north. The end result is a near miss on Thursday for most of Atlantic Canada. The exception perhaps is a period of light snow along the south coast of Nova Scotia.
Another Alberta Clipper
An Alberta Clipper will race southeastward from the Prairies to the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a narrow band of accumulating snow. As is almost always the case with these storms, moisture will be limited and the best chance of accumulating snow will be along and just north of the surface storm track.
I do believe there will be snow in the air across much of southern Ontario later Thursday and Thursday night, but it will have a tough time accumulating, especially from the GTA on southwest.
The map below shows expected snowfall through Thursday evening.
The storm will spread similar amounts of snow into Quebec and New Brunswick later Thursday night into Friday.
Many questions in regards to potential eastern weekend storm
It may not be until Thursday that we have a better idea on the weekend storm potential for the East. The overall pattern looks favorable for storm formation near or off the U.S. East Coast, but computer models are having a hard time sorting out all the individual pieces of energy that will be rounding the base of the eastern trough. There will also be a system coming into the West, which may end up pushing the whole mess out to sea.
Both the GFS and ECMWF keep most of the action offshore, but the ECMWF does show a northern branch storm feature bringing some accumulating snow to the Maritimes on Saturday. The Canadian GEM model on the other hand, tries to bundle all the energy together for a significant storm that tracks from the Ohio Valley to the northern Appalachians over the weekend, which would result in a significant snow event from southern Ontario into the southern half of Quebec.
Until we have a better idea of where these players (pieces of energy) initially end up on the field it will be a difficult forecast to figure out. Again, we should have a much better idea by Thursday.
In any event, the overall pattern looks quite active over the next two weeks, and we may even see some lower elevation snow across southwestern BC and the Pacific Northwest by early next week.
Update on White Christmas probabilities for Canada
Update on the long-range forecast model data.
A look a the storm systems that could impact Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Canada.
What are your current chances for a white Christmas?
Here is our latest storm snowfall forecast map for Quebec and New Brunswick.
Storms will target the East and the West once again this week.