Here is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long range forecast model.....
Despite the lack of red color across Canada, it does look like there will be a brief warm-up across the Prairies starting around the 16th. However, I believe it will be short-lived as there are signs of more cold late in the month and into early March, but of course not to the extreme of what we have seen so far this winter.
The model also seems to be taking into account the cold, frozen Great Lakes region and hesitates to bring any milder air into that region.
After a couple of weeks of stormier weather it looks like a drier regime will return in March over BC.
--No major storm in the east this weekend as systems stay separate and weak.
--Weak clipper-like system will bring light snow to southern Ontario Saturday night into Sunday morning. Accumulations generally a coating to 4 cm.
--Timing of a Pacific storm system still in question later this weekend into Monday, but it does look like there is the potential for a small accumulation of snow in the Vancouver area of BC either Sunday night or early Monday before enough warmer air comes in and turns it to rain.
--Potential for accumulating snow from southwestern Alberta through southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the Tue/Wed period next week as a clipper storm dives southeast.
No significant changes in thinking in regards to Gonzalo and a look at the latest long range models.
Update on Gonzalo as it heads to Bermuda then approaches southeast Newfoundland.
Heavy rainfall for Quebec Thursday and tracking Gonzalo.
Gonzalo a potential threat to Newfoundland this weekend and an updated look at the long range.
The latest on the updated forecast model output through the winter months.
Weekly long range forecast model interpretation through early November.