Here is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long range forecast model.....
Despite the lack of red color across Canada, it does look like there will be a brief warm-up across the Prairies starting around the 16th. However, I believe it will be short-lived as there are signs of more cold late in the month and into early March, but of course not to the extreme of what we have seen so far this winter.
The model also seems to be taking into account the cold, frozen Great Lakes region and hesitates to bring any milder air into that region.
After a couple of weeks of stormier weather it looks like a drier regime will return in March over BC.
--No major storm in the east this weekend as systems stay separate and weak.
--Weak clipper-like system will bring light snow to southern Ontario Saturday night into Sunday morning. Accumulations generally a coating to 4 cm.
--Timing of a Pacific storm system still in question later this weekend into Monday, but it does look like there is the potential for a small accumulation of snow in the Vancouver area of BC either Sunday night or early Monday before enough warmer air comes in and turns it to rain.
--Potential for accumulating snow from southwestern Alberta through southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the Tue/Wed period next week as a clipper storm dives southeast.
My look at the overall pattern across Canada for this week.
Some forecast model clues through the end of August and an update on global sea surface temperatures.
Tornado threat into Tuesday from southeastern Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario.
Latest weekly clues to the long range forecast through mid-August.
Major storm for the Prairies early next week could bring heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.
Severe thunderstorm threat later Thursday and a general look at the upcoming weather pattern.