Wednesday 9 a.m.
The offshore storm that kept it gray and chilly along and near the Middle and North Atlantic coastal areas yesterday is continuing to move away... and it is turning warmer today. A cold front that brought more rain to waterlogged sections of the Great Lakes yesterday and last night (many dozens of roads still closed because of flooding in Illinois) will trigger thunderstorms as it crosses the Appalachians this afternoon. I can't be sure about this, but those storms may weaken as they approach the I95 corridor.
With the cold front offshore tomorrow, the afternoon will be cooler than today over much of the Northeast. The coolness will linger into Friday. After that, however, a warming trend is likely, and fine spring weather should hold well into next week. Computer models suggest a return to wet conditions after that. Here is my video from this morning.
A meteogram provides a way to show a forecast on a graph. I know the numbers on the graph are miniscule at this scale but two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph) and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia. On the AccuWeather.com professional site, you can plot one of these for any point you want.
The peak of the upcoming warmup should come on Monday for much of the Northeast. This map shows computer projections of temperatures at 4 p.m. ET Monday afternoon. Note the 80+ area in Pennsylvania. Cooler air will arrive by midweek.
As a storm slowly develops along the North Carolina coast, rain that was affecting areas of Michigan, Ohio and western Pennsylvania will tend to redevelop farther east and south. A flow from the east (see map) will keep it cool through tomorrow from New York City to Boston.
A sunny triangle is framed by a band of clouds moving southeast from Wisconsin, rain clouds over the Southeast and the western fringe of a North Atlantic storm.
Jumping ahead almost two weeks, map is the 500mb flow forecast for Mothers Day. If correct, the Middle and North Atlantic states would have a sunny day with afternoon temperatures as high as the 80s! Please remember the models do best in the short range.
This map shows the pressure pattern at 9 a.m. ET. As the high moves closer and the storm moves farther away tomorrow and Wednesday, there should be an increase in sunshine with milder afternoons.
This map is the GFS forecast for when weekend rain makes its most northward advance early Sunday. The model then shows drying from north to south during the day Sunday. The ensemble mean has the northern edge in the same area. Looking ahead, it appears that warmer air is coming when May starts.