Wednesday 9 a.m.
The offshore storm that kept it gray and chilly along and near the Middle and North Atlantic coastal areas yesterday is continuing to move away... and it is turning warmer today. A cold front that brought more rain to waterlogged sections of the Great Lakes yesterday and last night (many dozens of roads still closed because of flooding in Illinois) will trigger thunderstorms as it crosses the Appalachians this afternoon. I can't be sure about this, but those storms may weaken as they approach the I95 corridor.
With the cold front offshore tomorrow, the afternoon will be cooler than today over much of the Northeast. The coolness will linger into Friday. After that, however, a warming trend is likely, and fine spring weather should hold well into next week. Computer models suggest a return to wet conditions after that. Here is my video from this morning.
A meteogram provides a way to show a forecast on a graph. I know the numbers on the graph are miniscule at this scale but two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph) and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia. On the AccuWeather.com professional site, you can plot one of these for any point you want.
If correct, cooler, drier and more comfortable weather will take over in the Northeast as we go into the holiday weekend, then warmth and humidity would increase as we go through next week. This map matches that scenario.
that short wave is what the models latch onto in bringing a cold front through the Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. This would bring noticeable cooling to the Northeast late in the week.
Labor Day is a week from Monday. The computer model used here, the GFS ensemble mean, suggests the weather will favor outdoor late summer activities across the Great Lakes and Northeast:
In response to heating at ground level and a weak cold front approaching from the west, showers and locally strong thunderstorms should develop across northern Ohio this afternoon.
... much greater interest is being generated on threats and rumors about tropical storms. It is worthwhile to read Dan Kottlowski's authoritative reports on this. Here is a copy of his map from this morning:
The tropical Atlantic shows signs of life in the storm development department. Dan Kottlowski's expert discussion suggests the third storm (which could be Hermine) of current concern is one that could head to the Bahamas, Florida, the Gulf or ???