Wednesday 9 a.m.
Early this morning, some heavy showers and thunderstorms straddled I95 from Washington, D.C., to New York City. In some individual thunderstorms, the rain has been heavy enough to cause street flooding, and more episodes of that will take place today. This is part of the same disturbance that caused local flooding in Batavia, N.Y., yesterday and at other spots from central Pennsylvania through West Virginia and at places farther southwest.
Once the current shower zone moves offshore, hotter, humid air will drift east to send temperatures to or past 90 degrees for at least three consecutive days from D.C. to near New York City. Computer models show cool fronts reaching the Northeast late Sunday or Monday then again a few days later.
No tropical storms are targeting the Northeast at the moment, but the tropical Atlantic has come alive with several trackable features. You can read this morning's tropical weather feature here.
In today's video, we look at the period from today (Wednesday) through early next week.
After thunderstorms moves through in late afternoon clouds, the sky often clears. Around and just after sunset at ground level (but not yet at cloud height), the sunlight can illuminate the bottoms of clouds. This scene appeared west of my location in the middle of Pennsylvania last evening.
These two maps show the change from the very, very cold flow likely this Saturday to the much milder Pacific-origin westerly flow later next week.
When we look more closely, we see a variety of disturbances embedded in the main current, each capable of temporarily increasing or cutting off the chance of snow. This map shows the setup:
This map shows the circulation around the offshore storm and a larger but less intense storm moving into the Great Lakes. With this sprawling storm likely to be in the region for several days, the weather can vary widely.
...speculation about a snowstorm Monday or Tuesday, and one is still possible. However, timing and placement remain elusive. This map shows the GFS ensemble mean "solution" for Tuesday morning showing snow just off the New England coast. Watch this story evolve on accuweather.com all weekend.
As we look father out this month, it looks cold for the Great Lakes and Northeast (as well as deep into the South) in the middle of next week but milder the following week. This map, for next Wednesday, shows a cold flow from way north in Canada.