Wednesday 9 a.m.
With a high pressure area in charge and another one likely to take over later this weekend into the start of the weekend, dry and moderately chilly weather will be the rule across most of the Great Lakes and Northeast regions.
Toward the end of the week, a low pressure area will become organized east of the Carolinas. The computer models are not in unison on this, but they suggest an increasing chance of rain and/or drizzle with strengthening northeast winds later in the weekend and early next week. And, we will have to watch the temperatures carefully, because it would not take too much of a change to get some snow with that system.
Later next week and during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, we see a wide range in possibilities expressed by the computer models. Here are two maps from models that were run last evening. The GFS (first map) suggests very mild weather from the Midwest to the Middle Atlantic states. However, the ECMWF (European) makes it look blustery and cold across the Great Lakes with an outbreak of lake-effect snow flurries and squalls. It appears much of the difference in solutions is created by the handling of a storm east of New England. The ECMWF generates a powerful storm, which in turn pulls a lot of cold air southward.
This map is a forecast of the upper air flow early on Saturday, Oct. 16. It shows a mild to warm pattern for the Great Lakes and Northeast. The second map is for two weeks from today. Northern snow showers, anyone?
...with almost 16 inches of rain in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and more than 20 inches around Charleston. You don't find amounts like that anywhere in the historic record for this area. This picture shows the radar-estimated rainfall over South Carolina between Friday afternoon and mid morning today:
This map shows where Hurricane Joaquin was just before 8 a.m. ET. You can also see the stripe of clouds centered just of the Middle and North Atlantic coasts.
There are competing forces acting on it, and each move it makes will place it under different influences. This has made it very difficult for computer models and meteorologists to judge where it will actually go. This is reflected in the track model collection on this map:
In assessing the final impact of the storm system coming into the East, there are three main components. First is the cold front coming across the Appalachians tonight in a very rich moisture field with ...
On this map, the cold front that will eventually move through the Northeast is in the far northwest corner of the picture. There are areas of showers moving northeastward well ahead of the front, but the steadiest rain is not likely until the cool air moves in and the front stalls.