In today's video, we look at the weather outlook through the coming weekend and early next week. The weather will generally favorable for the massive restoration and repair efforts now underway in the wake of Sandy. The chill is a challenge for keeping warm when there is no power, yet it is not cold enough to preserve food that could not be kept refrigerated or frozen.
One interesting feature is a storm that the GFS places along the East coast next Tuesday. Last night's ECMWF also had a storm nearby. Anytime during the colder parts of the year when there is a coastal storm and cold air is nearby, there is concern about snow. Since Tuesday is Election Day, any storminess may be an issue. We'll be watching this with you during the next few days.
A few people have asked why the storm's winds from the middle of Pennsylvania to the middle of New York state were not as strong as they might have been. This map does not show the root cause of this occurrence, but in the pressure pattern, you can see the greater separation in the isobars in that area compared with the situation around the rest of the storm. This map shows the setup about 6-12 hours after the highest winds had occurred, but the shape was similar then.
Amazingly, the European model suggested this northward elongation in its forecast 210 hours in advance. It was a little slow on the storm's position but it was still an impressive forecast:
Randy Adkins, one of our fine meteorologists at AccuWeather, compiled this summary (as of Tuesday night) about Sandy:
While there were many differences, Sandy was New York City's Katrina.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BY STATE:
***Andrews AFB, Md.: 15.3" (unconfirmed)
Easton, Md.: 12.55"
Wildwood Crest, N.J.: 11.91"
Georgetown, Del.: 10.20"
Reedville, Va.: 9.90"
Salvo, N.C.: 8.09"
Maysville, W.Va.: 7.75"
Hanover, Pa.: 7.61"
Washington, D.C. (5.1 NW) : 5.83"
Kirtland, Ohio: 5.69"
Gorham, N.H.: 4.85"
Whitesville, N.Y.: 4.83"
North Ashburnham, Mass.: 3.70"
Woonsocket, R.I.: 1.87"
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BY STATE:
Eatons Neck, N.Y.: 94 mph
Tompkinsville, N.J.: 90 mph
Westerly, R.I.: 86 mph
Madison, Conn.: 85 mph
Cuttyhunk, Mass.: 83 mph
Allentown, Pa.: 81 mph
Highland Beach, Md.: 79 mph
Chester Gap, Va.: 79 mph
Bath, Maine: 76 mph
Fort Gratiot: Mich.: 74 mph
Stowe, Vt.: 72 mph
Goshen, N.H.: 70 mph
Cleveland, Ohio (BKL): 67 mph
Ranson, W.Va.: 65 mph
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS BY STATE:
Redhouse, Md.: 29.0"
Davis, W.Va.: 28.0"
Norton, Va.: 24.0"
Faust, N.C.: 24"
Gatlinburg (7SE, in the mountains), Tenn.: 22.0"
Payne Gap, Ky.: 14.0"
Champion, Pa.: 13.0"
Bellefontaine, Ohio: 4.5"
POWER OUTAGES: 7.4 million
By comparison, Hurricane Ike had 7.5 million over his entire path.
39.67 feet (Buoy #41048)
TOP STORM SURGES:
The Battery, N.Y.: ~9 feet above normal
Kings Point, N.Y.: ~12.5 feet above normal
New Haven, Conn.: ~9 feet above normal
LOWEST PRESSURE (LAND):
945.5 mb (27.92" Hg) at Atlantic City, N.J.
It appears the dry comfortable air mass now in the Northeast will be replaced by a humid flow from the South Atlantic states for the coming weekend. An upper-air forecast map sequence in the video shows how this could happen. The following map shows the predicted flow from Florida to New Jersey Friday night.
This map shows the pressure analysis for the Northeast and Great Lakes. The gusty flow on the west side of the low pressure area adds a real autumn feel to the air.
Since individual lines and clusters of thunderstorms have limited life spans and change character constantly, forecasting whether it will or won't rain at any one time this weekend is difficult at best. One solution is to have your tablet or phone available with the AccuWeather.com app so you can see where all the storms are at the times when it concerns you the most.
It does look warmer for the weekend, but every time the warm air tries to extend into New England it gets chopped down. There could be more showers at times Sunday and early next week as forest we can tell. If any forecast gives you a headache, why not take a friend's advice: Take two aspen; sequoia in the morning.
This map from 5AM ET shows the cold front that is continuing toward this Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures stayed up in the 70s all night ahead of the front but it turned noticeably cooler after the front moved through.
The cold front that will cut off the heat will generate strong gusty thunderstorms as it moves southeastward today. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center highlights the most likely area for these severe thunderstorms today and tonight.