In today's video, we look at the weather outlook through the coming weekend and early next week. The weather will generally favorable for the massive restoration and repair efforts now underway in the wake of Sandy. The chill is a challenge for keeping warm when there is no power, yet it is not cold enough to preserve food that could not be kept refrigerated or frozen.
One interesting feature is a storm that the GFS places along the East coast next Tuesday. Last night's ECMWF also had a storm nearby. Anytime during the colder parts of the year when there is a coastal storm and cold air is nearby, there is concern about snow. Since Tuesday is Election Day, any storminess may be an issue. We'll be watching this with you during the next few days.
A few people have asked why the storm's winds from the middle of Pennsylvania to the middle of New York state were not as strong as they might have been. This map does not show the root cause of this occurrence, but in the pressure pattern, you can see the greater separation in the isobars in that area compared with the situation around the rest of the storm. This map shows the setup about 6-12 hours after the highest winds had occurred, but the shape was similar then.
Amazingly, the European model suggested this northward elongation in its forecast 210 hours in advance. It was a little slow on the storm's position but it was still an impressive forecast:
Randy Adkins, one of our fine meteorologists at AccuWeather, compiled this summary (as of Tuesday night) about Sandy:
While there were many differences, Sandy was New York City's Katrina.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BY STATE:
***Andrews AFB, Md.: 15.3" (unconfirmed)
Easton, Md.: 12.55"
Wildwood Crest, N.J.: 11.91"
Georgetown, Del.: 10.20"
Reedville, Va.: 9.90"
Salvo, N.C.: 8.09"
Maysville, W.Va.: 7.75"
Hanover, Pa.: 7.61"
Washington, D.C. (5.1 NW) : 5.83"
Kirtland, Ohio: 5.69"
Gorham, N.H.: 4.85"
Whitesville, N.Y.: 4.83"
North Ashburnham, Mass.: 3.70"
Woonsocket, R.I.: 1.87"
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BY STATE:
Eatons Neck, N.Y.: 94 mph
Tompkinsville, N.J.: 90 mph
Westerly, R.I.: 86 mph
Madison, Conn.: 85 mph
Cuttyhunk, Mass.: 83 mph
Allentown, Pa.: 81 mph
Highland Beach, Md.: 79 mph
Chester Gap, Va.: 79 mph
Bath, Maine: 76 mph
Fort Gratiot: Mich.: 74 mph
Stowe, Vt.: 72 mph
Goshen, N.H.: 70 mph
Cleveland, Ohio (BKL): 67 mph
Ranson, W.Va.: 65 mph
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS BY STATE:
Redhouse, Md.: 29.0"
Davis, W.Va.: 28.0"
Norton, Va.: 24.0"
Faust, N.C.: 24"
Gatlinburg (7SE, in the mountains), Tenn.: 22.0"
Payne Gap, Ky.: 14.0"
Champion, Pa.: 13.0"
Bellefontaine, Ohio: 4.5"
POWER OUTAGES: 7.4 million
By comparison, Hurricane Ike had 7.5 million over his entire path.
39.67 feet (Buoy #41048)
TOP STORM SURGES:
The Battery, N.Y.: ~9 feet above normal
Kings Point, N.Y.: ~12.5 feet above normal
New Haven, Conn.: ~9 feet above normal
LOWEST PRESSURE (LAND):
945.5 mb (27.92" Hg) at Atlantic City, N.J.
All foliage colors have peaked across much of the interior sections of New York and New England, but this weekend will offer plenty of dazzling color farther south. This barn and wooded hillside scene was photographed 4 miles west of State College, Pennsylvania, this week.
A storm strengthening off the Middle Atlantic coast will cause episodes of rain and cool gusty winds from Maryland to Maine. The heaviest rain today is focused on the Washington, D.C., to New York City area. Later tonight and tomorrow, the heaviest rain and strongest winds (gusts of 30-40 mph) should spread northeastward across New England. As the storm slowly departs, the weather will improve from southwest to northeast. This map shows the circulation around the storm as of 9 a.m. ET.
The reason for this is a growing and then stalling storm aloft. This map shows the predicted circulation around the storm on Wednesday evening, showing how the moisture could keep going round and round until the storm leaves.
This mornng, showers were moving across the lower Great Lakes region. A band of thunderstorms developed near Chicago before 6:30 a.m. CT and reached the southwest Michigan shoreline an hour later (8:30 a.m. ET). The following maps show the shower zone and Chicago area lightning.
The tropics have been more active recently. This map shows various entities that area being tracked and analyzed. Hurricane Gonzalo stands out clearly.
A couple of days ago, the storm entering the East had a stronger circulation than it does now. Here is the pressure analysis from earlier this morning. Several minor disturbance can be seen, and trough lines representing those have been sketched on the map. Note that there is little difference in temperature from western Pennsylvania to Wisconsin.