In today's video, we look at the weather outlook through the coming weekend and early next week. The weather will generally favorable for the massive restoration and repair efforts now underway in the wake of Sandy. The chill is a challenge for keeping warm when there is no power, yet it is not cold enough to preserve food that could not be kept refrigerated or frozen.
One interesting feature is a storm that the GFS places along the East coast next Tuesday. Last night's ECMWF also had a storm nearby. Anytime during the colder parts of the year when there is a coastal storm and cold air is nearby, there is concern about snow. Since Tuesday is Election Day, any storminess may be an issue. We'll be watching this with you during the next few days.
A few people have asked why the storm's winds from the middle of Pennsylvania to the middle of New York state were not as strong as they might have been. This map does not show the root cause of this occurrence, but in the pressure pattern, you can see the greater separation in the isobars in that area compared with the situation around the rest of the storm. This map shows the setup about 6-12 hours after the highest winds had occurred, but the shape was similar then.
Amazingly, the European model suggested this northward elongation in its forecast 210 hours in advance. It was a little slow on the storm's position but it was still an impressive forecast:
Randy Adkins, one of our fine meteorologists at AccuWeather, compiled this summary (as of Tuesday night) about Sandy:
While there were many differences, Sandy was New York City's Katrina.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BY STATE:
***Andrews AFB, Md.: 15.3" (unconfirmed)
Easton, Md.: 12.55"
Wildwood Crest, N.J.: 11.91"
Georgetown, Del.: 10.20"
Reedville, Va.: 9.90"
Salvo, N.C.: 8.09"
Maysville, W.Va.: 7.75"
Hanover, Pa.: 7.61"
Washington, D.C. (5.1 NW) : 5.83"
Kirtland, Ohio: 5.69"
Gorham, N.H.: 4.85"
Whitesville, N.Y.: 4.83"
North Ashburnham, Mass.: 3.70"
Woonsocket, R.I.: 1.87"
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BY STATE:
Eatons Neck, N.Y.: 94 mph
Tompkinsville, N.J.: 90 mph
Westerly, R.I.: 86 mph
Madison, Conn.: 85 mph
Cuttyhunk, Mass.: 83 mph
Allentown, Pa.: 81 mph
Highland Beach, Md.: 79 mph
Chester Gap, Va.: 79 mph
Bath, Maine: 76 mph
Fort Gratiot: Mich.: 74 mph
Stowe, Vt.: 72 mph
Goshen, N.H.: 70 mph
Cleveland, Ohio (BKL): 67 mph
Ranson, W.Va.: 65 mph
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS BY STATE:
Redhouse, Md.: 29.0"
Davis, W.Va.: 28.0"
Norton, Va.: 24.0"
Faust, N.C.: 24"
Gatlinburg (7SE, in the mountains), Tenn.: 22.0"
Payne Gap, Ky.: 14.0"
Champion, Pa.: 13.0"
Bellefontaine, Ohio: 4.5"
POWER OUTAGES: 7.4 million
By comparison, Hurricane Ike had 7.5 million over his entire path.
39.67 feet (Buoy #41048)
TOP STORM SURGES:
The Battery, N.Y.: ~9 feet above normal
Kings Point, N.Y.: ~12.5 feet above normal
New Haven, Conn.: ~9 feet above normal
LOWEST PRESSURE (LAND):
945.5 mb (27.92" Hg) at Atlantic City, N.J.
This map shows the split flow that is predicted to be in place on New Year's Day. Note how the flow reaching northern Pennsylvania originates far north in Canada, whereas to flow aimed at Virginia comes from Mexico.
The maps I searched for were from December 1960. I was 13 and was thoroughly overjoyed when Philadelphia got 14.6 inches on Dec. 11 and 12. Schools were closed for three days, something that did not happen again until the Blizzard of January '96.
At midnight, the temperature will be in the 50s to low 60s from Virginia to Southern New England... more like late spring than Christmas time. Meanwhile, cold air will be advancing into western parts of Pennsylvania and New York, driven by strong winds. Earlier, this "cold" air mass looked like it would be more potent than it has turned out to be. This map shows the pressure pattern and some temperatures at 9 a.m.
Temperatures are likely to be in the 50s from Boston to Washington, D.C., during the nighttime hours of Christmas Eve. Dry chillier weather will arrive during Christmas Day, with dry weather lasting until at least Saturday.
This picture, which may or may not have been taken very recently, has a red dot near the North Pole. I cannot confirm that a red dot is there on the ground or that it means anything. We will monitor the area for any signs of activity and advise everyone to maintain the spirit of being nice and not naughty.
Rain with areas of fog should spread from Virginia to New Jersey Monday or Monday night then spread into New England for Tuesday. From the mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania into the interior of New England this could at least start as snow or ice. The GFS for 1 AM New Year's Day looks interesting. See the map below. Whether or not this storm develops and where it will snow or rain cannot be precisely predicted two weeks in advance using these models.