In today's video, we look at the weather outlook through the coming weekend and early next week. The weather will generally favorable for the massive restoration and repair efforts now underway in the wake of Sandy. The chill is a challenge for keeping warm when there is no power, yet it is not cold enough to preserve food that could not be kept refrigerated or frozen.
One interesting feature is a storm that the GFS places along the East coast next Tuesday. Last night's ECMWF also had a storm nearby. Anytime during the colder parts of the year when there is a coastal storm and cold air is nearby, there is concern about snow. Since Tuesday is Election Day, any storminess may be an issue. We'll be watching this with you during the next few days.
A few people have asked why the storm's winds from the middle of Pennsylvania to the middle of New York state were not as strong as they might have been. This map does not show the root cause of this occurrence, but in the pressure pattern, you can see the greater separation in the isobars in that area compared with the situation around the rest of the storm. This map shows the setup about 6-12 hours after the highest winds had occurred, but the shape was similar then.
Amazingly, the European model suggested this northward elongation in its forecast 210 hours in advance. It was a little slow on the storm's position but it was still an impressive forecast:
Randy Adkins, one of our fine meteorologists at AccuWeather, compiled this summary (as of Tuesday night) about Sandy:
While there were many differences, Sandy was New York City's Katrina.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BY STATE:
***Andrews AFB, Md.: 15.3" (unconfirmed)
Easton, Md.: 12.55"
Wildwood Crest, N.J.: 11.91"
Georgetown, Del.: 10.20"
Reedville, Va.: 9.90"
Salvo, N.C.: 8.09"
Maysville, W.Va.: 7.75"
Hanover, Pa.: 7.61"
Washington, D.C. (5.1 NW) : 5.83"
Kirtland, Ohio: 5.69"
Gorham, N.H.: 4.85"
Whitesville, N.Y.: 4.83"
North Ashburnham, Mass.: 3.70"
Woonsocket, R.I.: 1.87"
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BY STATE:
Eatons Neck, N.Y.: 94 mph
Tompkinsville, N.J.: 90 mph
Westerly, R.I.: 86 mph
Madison, Conn.: 85 mph
Cuttyhunk, Mass.: 83 mph
Allentown, Pa.: 81 mph
Highland Beach, Md.: 79 mph
Chester Gap, Va.: 79 mph
Bath, Maine: 76 mph
Fort Gratiot: Mich.: 74 mph
Stowe, Vt.: 72 mph
Goshen, N.H.: 70 mph
Cleveland, Ohio (BKL): 67 mph
Ranson, W.Va.: 65 mph
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS BY STATE:
Redhouse, Md.: 29.0"
Davis, W.Va.: 28.0"
Norton, Va.: 24.0"
Faust, N.C.: 24"
Gatlinburg (7SE, in the mountains), Tenn.: 22.0"
Payne Gap, Ky.: 14.0"
Champion, Pa.: 13.0"
Bellefontaine, Ohio: 4.5"
POWER OUTAGES: 7.4 million
By comparison, Hurricane Ike had 7.5 million over his entire path.
39.67 feet (Buoy #41048)
TOP STORM SURGES:
The Battery, N.Y.: ~9 feet above normal
Kings Point, N.Y.: ~12.5 feet above normal
New Haven, Conn.: ~9 feet above normal
LOWEST PRESSURE (LAND):
945.5 mb (27.92" Hg) at Atlantic City, N.J.
This map shows the high pressure area that is promoting cool, dry weather in the Northeast today. The low pressure area on the left side of the map is associated with a cold front that will send showers eastward tomorrow.
With fine weather likely on most of the days ahead through early next week, leaf viewing will be a cool experience for many, especially in areas highlighted on this map showing the typical progression of peak fall colors:
This map is a forecast of the upper air flow early on Saturday, Oct. 16. It shows a mild to warm pattern for the Great Lakes and Northeast. The second map is for two weeks from today. Northern snow showers, anyone?
...with almost 16 inches of rain in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and more than 20 inches around Charleston. You don't find amounts like that anywhere in the historic record for this area. This picture shows the radar-estimated rainfall over South Carolina between Friday afternoon and mid morning today:
This map shows where Hurricane Joaquin was just before 8 a.m. ET. You can also see the stripe of clouds centered just of the Middle and North Atlantic coasts.
There are competing forces acting on it, and each move it makes will place it under different influences. This has made it very difficult for computer models and meteorologists to judge where it will actually go. This is reflected in the track model collection on this map: