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    Elliot Abrams

    Northeast Dry Much of Week, but Watch the Tropics

    By Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather chief meteorologist
    8/20/2012, 6:03:09 AM

    Monday 10:30 AM EDT Note: I will be out of the office this week, but look forward to writing to you next week.

    Today we mourn the passing of Doris S. Myers, mother of Joel, Barry and Evan Myers, the three top leaders at AccuWeather. Doris touched the lives of many, and worked tirelessly for many noble causes. She was always positive, friendly and encouraging whenever I saw her. My wife Bonnie served as one of a group of volunteers on her latest project to organize a race (that will be held this fall) to raise funds to fight cancer. She won't make it to age 95 and see the river of runners, but her memory will ride the current.

    This video shows how weather systems should proceed during the next week.

    During the morning, thunderstorms developed over southern Lake Michigan and at times affected parts of the Chicago area. Most of the Northeast had a fine morning, though showers were common in eastern Virginia... and showers/thunderstorms affect parts of northern Pennsylvania and south-central and southwestern New York.

    Early this morning, a tropical disturbance was moving westward through the central Atlantic. Even though it had not yet been named, GFS model ensemble forecasts of its potential movement were issued... and are seen on this map (which is posted for educational purposes. It is way to early to make a specific forecast about this storm):


    590x426_08201438_screen-shot-2012-08-20-at-10


    Now a seasonal thought:

    In the wake of a serenely cool and summer sunrise, this day is nice, with subtle stirrings, and sensible seasonality in a sublime and splendid setting. A few thunderstorms will affect area from Virginia to New York State. Temperatures in the Northeast will climb through the 70s, then sink back to the 50s tonight. It's something to savor. We still have more than a full month of official summer (Autumn starts at 10:49 a.m. Sept. 22), but many of us are starting to marvel at how fast summer is passing us by. Heat and humidity are still commonplace, but we lose the sunlight in the middle of an evening walk, and pesky patches of fog sometimes linger through morning rush.

    The nights are filled with the symphony of crickets and lecturing locusts, but on a few of the nights we notice a breeze, the first signs of autumn's atmospheric stirrings. For many, it's back to school time already, and even where the first day is two weeks off, scholastic soccer and football fields are the scene of a daily struggle to make the team while the marching band goes through endless rehearsal, and rehearsal, and rehearsal.

    It's all leading up to fall, a colorful and festive time when cooling breezes, falling leaves, chilly dawns and hazy afternoons change our outdoor scene completely. We still have summer left: there's no weeping for the willow, bees are still the buzzwords in the garden, emerald draperies cloak the trees, ragweed rages. But as we approach the end of August, we know our world is moving on, and the change in thoughts and anticipation of things to come add an extra sparkle on late-summer days that might otherwise seem tattered and shopworn.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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    Elliot Abrams