Elliot Abrams

Share |

National Optimism Month

March 5, 2014; 7:17 AM ET

Wednesday morning

Here is today's videos. I am optimistic you will find it to be useful.

There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.

March is national optimism month. A sense of optimism may help us remain healthy and certainly helps us make others feel better than they would around someone who is always pessimistic. In the weather forecasting business, we may sound optimistic or pessimistic on any given day, but we shouldn't let either emotion dictate the forecast. We might be optimistic about taking the brighter side of things, but I pessimistically add that when we are overly optimistic, things often go wrong. On the other hand, there are many times when one computer model or other atmospheric signal will suggest nasty weather is coming, but that model or signal may be an exception; the other models suggest the nasty weather will not happen and there won't be storm. If we go with that idea, are we being realistic or optimistic? The answer is simple. If we are correct, as we expect to be, then we were realistic with our optimism. If on the other hand, the pessimistic view turned out right, it is clear we were too optimistic to discard the pessimistic possibilities and thus missed the need to be realistically pessimistic. Today's computer models for late this week are a case in point. The latest trend shows a storm affecting the Carolina coast and into Virginia on Friday. Little or nothing is shown farther north, although the Canadian model has shown something on some previous runs. However, which is the correct trend? If we take the optimistic approach, we simply predict no big problem, but is that realistic? Is it optimistic? Is it pessimistic? It could be.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Northeast U.S. Weather Blog

  • I 95 Corridor: Rain Threatens to Come Forth for the Fourth

    July 3, 2015; 10:12 AM ET

    Over the Ohio Valley, rain is starting nudge northward again, prodded by one of a series of upper air disturbances embedded in the flow. It appears the rain will advance across Pennsylvania overnight, reach the area from New York City to Boston tomorrow... then head out to sea.

  • Northeast Mostly Dry for Holiday Weekend

    July 2, 2015; 10:22 AM ET

    Farther north, the area from Chicago to Boston looks most likely to have sunshine and dry weather. Cloud cover will vary during the weekend, and I focus on that aspect of the weekend forecast in this video.

  • Heavy Rain Attacks New England but Drier Air is Coming

    July 1, 2015; 9:55 AM ET

    A band of heavy rain and locally violent thunderstorms moved from the New York City area at 4 a.m. to just past Boston (distance: 188 miles) by 9:30 this morning. Note the stunning contrast between where it is pouring (dark red) and where it has dried out.

  • Prospects Brighten for the Holiday Weekend

    June 30, 2015; 10:40 AM ET

    On the map, showers and thunderstorms were located along and ahead of the gray line that cuts through Pennsylvania and along/ahead of the blue line. Both should be off the East coast by Thursday. Drier air from the Upper Midwest should filter into the Northeast later in the week.

  • Northeast Dries Out Temporarily

    June 29, 2015; 8:10 AM ET

    The large storm that drenched the Northeast during the weekend has drifted out to sea and somewhat drier air is coming in to replace it. However, another upper air trough extending from Wisconsin to Louisiana is supporting several pockets of showers and thunderstorms.

  • Weekend Rain

    June 26, 2015; 9:42 AM ET

    From northern West Virginia across most of Pennsylvania and western and central New York, there could be several inches of rain with flooded streets and streams.

About This Blog

Elliot Abrams
Elliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.