National Optimism Month

Wednesday morning

Here is today's videos. I am optimistic you will find it to be useful.

There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.

March is national optimism month. A sense of optimism may help us remain healthy and certainly helps us make others feel better than they would around someone who is always pessimistic. In the weather forecasting business, we may sound optimistic or pessimistic on any given day, but we shouldn't let either emotion dictate the forecast. We might be optimistic about taking the brighter side of things, but I pessimistically add that when we are overly optimistic, things often go wrong. On the other hand, there are many times when one computer model or other atmospheric signal will suggest nasty weather is coming, but that model or signal may be an exception; the other models suggest the nasty weather will not happen and there won't be storm. If we go with that idea, are we being realistic or optimistic? The answer is simple. If we are correct, as we expect to be, then we were realistic with our optimism. If on the other hand, the pessimistic view turned out right, it is clear we were too optimistic to discard the pessimistic possibilities and thus missed the need to be realistically pessimistic. Today's computer models for late this week are a case in point. The latest trend shows a storm affecting the Carolina coast and into Virginia on Friday. Little or nothing is shown farther north, although the Canadian model has shown something on some previous runs. However, which is the correct trend? If we take the optimistic approach, we simply predict no big problem, but is that realistic? Is it optimistic? Is it pessimistic? It could be.