Tuesday 10 a.m.
A collection of weak low pressure areas and moist regions accounts for a disorganized-looking weather map. When there are a lot of weak systems each competing for available moisture, it is quite difficult to time individual events. On the other hand, since we are dealing weak, disorganized systems, the chance of anything drastic happening is reduced. However, since there could be enough snow almost anywhere between Michigan and Massachusetts (as well as places south of this zone) to cause slippery conditions, it will be a good idea to use extra caution if you will be out this afternoon and tonight... just in case.. The video shows more and discusses some intriguing storm possibilities for later this week and beyond.
One issue for the Thursday night to Friday night period along the East Coast is whether disturbances in the south and north interfere with or enhance one another. If they interfere, the storm won't be any big deal. If they add to each other, there could be heavy snow along the New England coast, as well as significant snow and/or rain for the Middle Atlantic states.
This picture shows the assortment of small weather features over the northeast third of the country, each able to cause spotty snowfall.
Now, a note about Weather Person's Day:
Feb. 5 is weatherperson's day, marking the birth of one of the first weather prognosticators, John Jeffries, on this date in 1705. In our work, we're under high pressure to help people weather the storms of life, and sometimes offer a bit of philosophy. That's tough because people are so variable they aren't always clear. Some people are full of bluster but have no direction. Some are sunny; others are real drips. Some like to give things away; others are cumulists. One person will give you a cold shoulder while others put up a warm front. Some people like lots of visibility; others have more humidity. We just try to be enlightening. If I'm boring, people's ice glaze over and they're ready to fall back to sleet. Hopefully I can bring flurries of laughter. At least maybe I establish the proper climate for deciding if problems will be mist or they're cirrus. If they do get cirrus, our forecasts follow a warning trend. My basic aim is to rain in the main weather factors to help precipitate the right decisions. If the forecast is flaky or I try to snow you, you can't crystallize your ideas on what to expect. That leads to storms of protest, especially if people think they're in a fog. If I don't condense the details, your interest evaporates (like now). Then troubles really accumulate. The forecast? Lakes through the Appalachians: cold and now but slightly milder air will come in later this week. We will not keep the stratus quo. There could be snow from Pennsylvania to Maine on Friday. After a warmup early next week, colder weather is likely. After that, there could be some snowstorms. Of course, for a weatherperson to state he or she has high confidence in storms 10 days away is a good invitation for that weather person to weather storms of protest or gales of laughter if it does not happen.
On the map, one band of rain is along the coast at the north edge of the picture, the second is entering the Sierra range straight east of San Francisco, and the third extends from Los Angeles northeast to Las Vegas and on from there.
Some bands of rain broke out in the I-95 corridor, the most important of which brought a batch of heavy rain to the New York City area between 8:30 and 10 a.m.
in response to the approach of a deepening trough from the Plains, a Midwest low pressure area will grow stronger as it moves east to arrive on the New England coast Saturday morning.
In the I-95 corridor from D.C. to NYC, temperatures will be up past 80 this afternoon. However, between now and Saturday, a major change is on he way.
In eastern New England, an onshore flow of cool damp air prevailed all morning. There could be a last-minute warmup this afternoon. The affected areas will certainly be warmer tomrrow morning than they were this morning.
Now, out-of-season warmth is set to be the rule through midweek from the Ohio Valley to much of New England. Peak leaf color in Pennsylvania and New Jersey ranges from now northern mountains) to Halloween (in parts of South Jersey).