Thursday 10 a.m.
A high pressure area off the East Coast will promote increasing warmth over the Northeast for the last few days of summer. A slow-moving, shower- and thunderstorm-producing system from the Midwest should cross the Appalachians on Saturday then affect the I-95 corridor Saturday night into Sunday. After that, there is quite a bit of uncertainty. Earlier, computer models had show a storm developing the Middle Atlantic states, but last night's runs suggest that a new cool high pressure area will move into bring dry weather to the Northeast early next week. Here is the video, and it includes the dry idea for early next week.
A large and dangerous typhoon (Super Typhoon Usagi) is on a course that could bring it into China not far from Hong Kong between Sunday and Monday. A track farther south than the one we currently project would be more troublesome for low-lying areas of the big city because there would be a greater chance for a strong storm surge from the resulting easterly winds. When storms track west and do not curve around to the north and northeast, we often see a ridge aloft over the East seven to 10 days later. In this case, there may be other typhoons in the overall pattern, so any one signal from one storm may not be reliable.
When we look more closely, we see a variety of disturbances embedded in the main current, each capable of temporarily increasing or cutting off the chance of snow. This map shows the setup:
This map shows the circulation around the offshore storm and a larger but less intense storm moving into the Great Lakes. With this sprawling storm likely to be in the region for several days, the weather can vary widely.
...speculation about a snowstorm Monday or Tuesday, and one is still possible. However, timing and placement remain elusive. This map shows the GFS ensemble mean "solution" for Tuesday morning showing snow just off the New England coast. Watch this story evolve on accuweather.com all weekend.
As we look father out this month, it looks cold for the Great Lakes and Northeast (as well as deep into the South) in the middle of next week but milder the following week. This map, for next Wednesday, shows a cold flow from way north in Canada.
A few tornadoes can also occur, especially from Mississippi and Alabama to Kentucky. This map shows the areas of potential severe weather through tonight as forecast by the NWS Storm Prediction Center.