Thursday 10 a.m.
A high pressure area off the East Coast will promote increasing warmth over the Northeast for the last few days of summer. A slow-moving, shower- and thunderstorm-producing system from the Midwest should cross the Appalachians on Saturday then affect the I-95 corridor Saturday night into Sunday. After that, there is quite a bit of uncertainty. Earlier, computer models had show a storm developing the Middle Atlantic states, but last night's runs suggest that a new cool high pressure area will move into bring dry weather to the Northeast early next week. Here is the video, and it includes the dry idea for early next week.
A large and dangerous typhoon (Super Typhoon Usagi) is on a course that could bring it into China not far from Hong Kong between Sunday and Monday. A track farther south than the one we currently project would be more troublesome for low-lying areas of the big city because there would be a greater chance for a strong storm surge from the resulting easterly winds. When storms track west and do not curve around to the north and northeast, we often see a ridge aloft over the East seven to 10 days later. In this case, there may be other typhoons in the overall pattern, so any one signal from one storm may not be reliable.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.
The northward extent of the snow will be determined the progress of snow that was showing up this picture from the radar serving southwest Ohio. The is what it looked like just after 7PM ET.