Winter forecast 2025-26: Snowy season ahead for parts of the US
From snowy nor’easters to frigid Arctic blasts, here’s what to expect this winter across the US — and where drought and warmth may dominate instead.
Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok shares what to expect across the county when transitioning into the winter season.
Get your heavy coats, ice scrapers and snow shovels ready, because the start of winter is just a few weeks away, and it could be a stormy season for parts of the United States.
"It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
A man shovels snows outside his home in Towson, Md., Sunday, Jan. 24, 2016. (AP Photo/Steve Ruark)
Meteorological winter starts on Monday, Dec. 1, while astronomical winter begins on the solstice, which in 2025 occurs at 10:03 a.m. EST on Sunday, Dec. 21.
Snow forecast for winter 2025-26
A bookend winter is on tap for the central and eastern U.S., with the biggest storms expected around the opening and the final weeks of the season.
Early in the season, winter storms will track from Canada into the Midwest before pushing toward the mid-Atlantic and New England, where some could strengthen into nor’easters. By late winter, the storm track is expected to shift, bringing systems from the Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Appalachians, Midwest and Northeast.
Snowfall is projected to be higher than last winter in parts of the Northeast, including Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, though totals may still finish below the historical average as storms during mid- to late winter may produce a mix of rain and snow rather than just snow.
A snowy winter is predicted across portions of the Midwest, a swath from the Plains to the Ohio Valley, and areas of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.
December could be especially active around the Great Lakes, where blasts of cold air will fuel heavy lake-effect snow. Buffalo, New York, is forecast to receive 90–100 inches of snow, close to its historical average and more than the 77.6 inches measured last winter.
An early burst of winter storms should give ski resorts a solid start to the season. A midwinter lull could spell trouble for slopes lacking a deep base, but a resurgence of storms in late winter and early spring may provide a late-season boon for skiers.
Where Arctic air will hit the hardest
Energy bills could run high as residents in more than a dozen states across the Plains and Midwest turn up the heat during what is likely to be a cold winter. Cold will take hold early in December before easing in January, when a brief thaw is likely. With the absence of an arctic dry air mass, there may be more opportunities for snow. By February, winter is forecast to return in force, with frigid air expanding across the central and eastern U.S.
Farther south, cold air intrusions will be less frequent and less intense.
"The Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast should run above historical averages on temperatures, and below on precipitation," Pastelok said. However, he added that warm water in the Gulf could fuel severe thunderstorms, meaning rain that does fall could be accompanied by potentially dangerous storms. This includes the risk of damaging winds, lightning and tornadoes.
Despite the overall warmth, a major blast of Arctic air remains possible in the South. A pattern shift around late January or early February could open the door for "significant cold air" to sweep into Texas and the Gulf Coast, Pastelok said. This will also raise the risk of snow and ice.
This same timeframe has the highest potential for the polar vortex to shift south, unleashing some of the coldest air of the season across North America, according to research by AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters.
West Coast weather to be controlled by warm Pacific Ocean
Winter across the West Coast and Rocky Mountains will be directly linked to a marine heat wave that has water temperatures running much higher than normal across the northern Pacific Ocean.
"These waters off the West Coast and extending farther out are very, very important going into our [winter] forecast this year," Pastelok explained. He added that there have not been many winter seasons in recent decades that have had a similar setup across such a vast area of the ocean.
"If sea surface temperatures remain above normal just off the West Coast for much of the winter season, temperature departures can be even higher and precipitation much lower," Pastelok said about the forecast for the Northwest.
The warm, dry pattern will be most pronounced across California and the Southwest, where worsening drought and the risk of out-of-season wildfires are expected.
In December, some storms will reach the Northwest and northern Rockies, helping to build snowpack in the Cascades, Rockies and parts of the northern Sierra. However, the number of atmospheric rivers is projected to be lower than last winter.
January could bring the best opportunities for rainfall in Southern California and the Southwest as the storm track dips south, but the storms that do unfold are unlikely to erase drought conditions.
By February, the storm track will retreat north, leaving most of California and the Southwest warm and dry. "If the pattern becomes quite amplified, then near-record highs are possible," Pastelok said. The same is true for most of the Rockies with the exception of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
This will set the stage for worsening drought across the West Coast and Rocky Mountains into 2026.
What about La Niña?
Typically, one of the biggest factors that AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters considers when creating the U.S. winter forecast is whether there will be a La Niña or El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. These are regular, large-scale climate phenomena that can influence weather patterns across North America, especially during the winter months.
La Niña occurs when the water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean is cooler than the long-term average for at least three months. This is the opposite of El Niño, when water in this region is warmer. Both can shape the way storms track across North America.
La Niña conditions developed in early October, but they need to persist for several months for it to officially become a La Niña winter.
Pastelok said that regardless of the official status of La Niña, there could be times during the season when the weather patterns act the way they do when La Niña is occurring. This includes the warmer weather expected across the southern tier of the country. However, if it does develop, La Niña would have a bigger influence on the overall weather patterns throughout the winter.
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