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News / Winter Weather

Back-to-back storms to bring sloppy weather to Northeast

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Feb 26, 2021 6:44 PM EDT | Updated Feb 28, 2021 12:25 PM EDT

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A pair of storms accompanying chillier air will arrive in the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, but compared to major storms that hit those areas hard earlier this winter, a blockbuster snow event is not in the cards.

Although the storm combination this weekend won't be in the same ballpark of the potent nor'easters of December and early February, they could still contribute a coating to a couple of inches of snow or a thin glaze of ice, which AccuWeather forecasters caution can still be troublesome for motorists and pedestrians.

There are some other concerns that meteorologists will be keeping an eye on in these regions this weekend, including the risk of locally dense fog and the potential for ice jam flooding in a few locations.

Storms during December, January and February have delivered snowfall close to or above seasonal average in the Northeast as of the end of this week. From a percentage standpoint, Allentown, Pennsylvania, has received a whopping 225% of its normal snowfall to date with New York City at 188%. Washington, D.C., is one of the biggest losers in terms of snowfall with a seasonal amount below 40% of average so far.

It is a similar story for much of the Midwest in terms of snowfall variation. Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit and Des Moines, Iowa, are all well above average with Minneapolis, Cleveland and Indianapolis receiving 80% or greater of their seasonal snowfall to date.

Areas of all or mostly snow with the storms will be mainly limited to the northern tier this weekend.

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A brief period of wet snow and rain mix pushed through the northern suburbs of Baltimore and the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City late Friday night.

Some reports came in north and west of Baltimore on Saturday morning, reporting anywhere between 0.2 inches of snow to half an inch.

Through Saturday evening, snow showers continued for parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine before ending as some rain.

The second and milder of the two storms is likely to roll along from late Saturday night to Sunday night.

While the storm will bring snow from Rapid City, South Dakota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, a wave of rain will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast through Sunday.

The storm that will pivot through the Midwest and Northeast later in the weekend will not have much, if any, cold air to work with.

"Most areas from the Ohio Valley Saturday night and early Sunday through the mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Sunday night are likely to just have occasional rain or drizzle from the second storm," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

"Where the air remains chilly over the northern tier, there may not be enough moisture around for significant snow or wintry mix later this weekend," Anderson added.

Perhaps a more widespread travel problem, in addition to mainly wet roads will be the potential for areas of dense fog.

Fog is likely to form in this situation due to mild, moist air passing over cold ground and snow cover. The same effect can be visible on a warm, humid day in the summer when you open the freezer door and see the vapor that forms as the two batches of air mix and the moisture in the room condenses.

The pair of storms forecast to roll through this weekend will bring mainly light precipitation. Even though a significant amount of snow has melted in recent days and has many streams and rivers rising slowly,

In places like eastern Kentucky, West Virginia and Pennsylvania additional snow melt, as well as more rain through Sunday and Monday could lead to noticeable flooding issues.

Ice that breaks up on streams and rivers can get bottled up or jammed and cause water to back up and rise upstream, which can result in flooding.

Anytime a thaw with or without rain follows a period of very cold weather, there is some risk of ice jams. This can be a wildcard in terms of sudden water level rises and flooding for communities not protected by levees.

Areas in Kentucky, West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania could have major snow-melt issues that, compounded with the warmth and additional rain, could lead to flooding.

As sloppy as the weather may become across the Midwest and Northeast this weekend due to precipitation and melting snow, a lengthier period of wet weather is in store for parts of the South, where rounds of rain may persist well into the upcoming week in some locations. The wet pattern began to unfold during this past Thursday night in some areas and will expand over a large part of the interior South through the end of the weekend.

Beyond this weekend, Mother Nature will deliver another round of colder air for the Midwest and Northeast early week.

A burst of Arctic air is forecast to race southeastward from Sunday night to Monday night and is likely to be accompanied by gusty winds and even locally heavy snow showers in some locations. The quick shot of winter weather could send trash cans sailing through neighborhoods and may cause roads to become slippery at the start of the new week.

Related:

Heavy rain drenching states hit hard by winter weather
The ‘average’ hurricane season has a new normal
Answering TikTok: What does a ‘30% chance of rain’ actually mean?

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, Fubo, and Verizon Fios.

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