AccuWeather's 2020-2021 Asia winter forecast
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 30, 2020 4:41 PM EDT
As winter approaches for the world's largest continent, AccuWeather international forecasters have been analyzing weather data and the climate trends that will influence how the season unfolds across Asia.
Meteorological winter begins on Dec. 1 for almost the entirety of the continent, save for parts of Indonesia that are situated below the equator, followed by the official beginning of winter on Dec. 21, and AccuWeather forecasters say the host of weather impacts this season will be as expansive as the continent itself.
An Imperial guard stands in the snow outside the Gyeongbok Palace, the main royal palace during the Joseon Dynasty in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Feb. 17, 2020. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
An anticipated moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific during the winter of 2020-2021 will contribute to rainy conditions for some areas, dry weather for others and may allow some snow to fall fairly far south along the coast of China. Here's a region-by-region breakdown of what to expect.
Northeastern Asia to be stormy, chilly
The swath from eastern China to the Korean Peninsula and into Japan is forecast to experience rounds of cold weather and stormy conditions during December -- at times before winter officially begins -- and in January and February. La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean tend to cause the jet stream to dip southward in this zone and can trigger or intensify storms on a regular basis.
"Far northeastern China and northern Japan can expect temperatures to average lower than normal with snowfall forecast to be near to above normal," according to AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, who has been studying the weather patterns that will influence the upcoming season across the continent.
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The combination of cold air and rounds of storms is forecast to bring near-normal to perhaps slightly above-normal snowfall in Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo.
"There can be a little snow and sleet in part of southeastern China this winter as we often see during La Niña," Nicholls said. "Shanghai rarely sees snow, but there is a chance the city can have a touch of the wintry precipitation, especially in January and February."
Since La Niña is not forecast to be nearly as strong as that of the winter of 2010-2011, when there were multiple accumulating snow events in Shanghai, the number of opportunities for snowfall this winter could be limited in the city.
A person walks on a snow-covered bridge in Shanghai, China, Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2010. A strong La Niña during the winter of 2010-2011 brought several snow events to the city. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
Farther south, a swath of southeastern China can expect temperatures to be near average to above average and drier than average with less precipitation than last winter.
Few storms forecast for southwestern Asia, Middle-East
Farther west, much of the area from western China to Nepal, northern Pakistan, Afghanistan and northwestern India is forecast to be drier and warmer than normal. "Less storm systems are likely to affect the region this winter, when compared with last winter, which was rather stormy," Nicholls said.
Fewer storms will mean less stirring of the air overall this winter and, therefore, fewer opportunities for smog to be mixed out of the valleys in Pakistan and northern India, including Delhi.
"Air quality will be a greater concern across these areas with fewer breaks in the haze and smog this winter, compared to last winter," Nicholls said.
An Indian worker demonstrates an anti-smog gun to control dust at the Integrated Exhibition cum Convention Center (IECC) construction site in New Delhi, India, Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. Authorities in New Delhi launched an anti-pollution campaign on Monday in an attempt to curb air pollution levels ahead of winter, when the capital is regularly covered in toxic haze, and warned that filthy air could make the coronavirus pandemic more dangerous. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
With the storms forecast to be less-frequent than average overall, this winter is likely to bring drier and probably warmer conditions than normal over much of the Middle East.
"Much like Europe, La Niña tends to have minimal influence on the Middle-East because these areas are so far removed from the tropical Pacific water temperature fluctuations," Nicholls said.
There can still be a bit of rain and snow in Syria, Jordan, Iraq (Baghdad saw snow for the first time in 12 years last winter), Israel, and perhaps northern Saudi Arabia from the limited storm activity. Some transport of moisture from the Arabian Sea may result in near-average precipitation in Oman and Yemen.
Forecasters are calling for there to be occasional storms that extend from southern Europe, which should reach from Turkey, Ukraine and southwestern Russia to around the Caspian Sea, with some episodes of rain and snow. Precipitation could be near average in northern Iran as a result.
La Niña to influence Southeast Asia rainfall
Waters are typically warmer than average during La Niña over the western part of the Pacific, which creates rising air, showers and thunderstorms.
"Overall wet conditions are forecast from Indonesia and Malaysia to the Southeast Asia mainland," Nicholls said.
These persistent wet conditions can result in areas of flooding.
Tropics to remain a threat this winter
Overall, the total number of tropical storms and typhoons, AccuWeather forecasters expect, will be much less than average for 2020 thanks to the impact of La Niña, which ramped up during the summer and autumn.
As of Oct. 30, 2020, there have been 20 tropical storms, nine of which have become typhoons. The strongest typhoon was Goni, which formed east of the Philippines at the end of October and quickly became a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of at least 120 mph (195 km/h).
La Niña tends to chop down the overall size of the tropical storm development area over the Pacific basin by creating cooler, less-favorable waters over the west-central part of the Ocean. This generally leaves the westernmost part of the basin open for tropical development.
There can still be a small number of tropical storms and typhoons through the end of 2020.
"On average, there are two to three storms in November and one in December," according to AccuWeather's top tropical weather expert Dan Kottlowski.
"We expect the warm waters and overall rising air over the western Pacific to lead to tropical development over the Philippine and South China seas, especially from December to early January," Nicholls added.
The main impacts from tropical systems will be across the Philippines and Vietnam, but downpours can extend inland over more of Southeast Asia into this winter.
"Since areas from Vietnam and Laos to Cambodia and northern Thailand where affected by several tropical systems during October, the risk of flooding will remain high in these areas," Nicholls said.
Buddhist monks walk through a flooded pagoda following recent rains on the outskirts of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020. A Cambodian disaster official said that more than 10,000 people had been evacuated to safety places after a tropical storm hit the country, causing the flash flood. (AP Photo/Heng Sinith)
"There is the risk that tropical development will persist across the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean, mainly during December," Nicholls continued. "One of these tropical systems could cross southern India or Sri Lanka and enter the Arabian Sea."
Downpours and flooding that blasted part of southern India during the middle of October were associated with a deep depression that crossed the region.
A woman walks carrying a child through floodwaters after heavy rainfall in Hyderabad, India, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020. Record rains and heavy flooding in the southern Indian state of Telangana collapsed houses and killed more than a dozen people, police said Wednesday. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)
"In the absence of tropical features, near- to above-average rainfall is expected across southern India and Sri Lanka into January, but these areas can turn drier later in the winter season," Nicholls said.
Despite the potential of a tropical system to move westward from the Bay of Bengal, across southern India and enter the Arabian sea, the chance of impacts reaching the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula is rather low.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Winter Weather
AccuWeather's 2020-2021 Asia winter forecast
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 30, 2020 4:41 PM EDT
As winter approaches for the world's largest continent, AccuWeather international forecasters have been analyzing weather data and the climate trends that will influence how the season unfolds across Asia.
Meteorological winter begins on Dec. 1 for almost the entirety of the continent, save for parts of Indonesia that are situated below the equator, followed by the official beginning of winter on Dec. 21, and AccuWeather forecasters say the host of weather impacts this season will be as expansive as the continent itself.
An Imperial guard stands in the snow outside the Gyeongbok Palace, the main royal palace during the Joseon Dynasty in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Feb. 17, 2020. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
An anticipated moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific during the winter of 2020-2021 will contribute to rainy conditions for some areas, dry weather for others and may allow some snow to fall fairly far south along the coast of China. Here's a region-by-region breakdown of what to expect.
Northeastern Asia to be stormy, chilly
The swath from eastern China to the Korean Peninsula and into Japan is forecast to experience rounds of cold weather and stormy conditions during December -- at times before winter officially begins -- and in January and February. La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean tend to cause the jet stream to dip southward in this zone and can trigger or intensify storms on a regular basis.
"Far northeastern China and northern Japan can expect temperatures to average lower than normal with snowfall forecast to be near to above normal," according to AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, who has been studying the weather patterns that will influence the upcoming season across the continent.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The combination of cold air and rounds of storms is forecast to bring near-normal to perhaps slightly above-normal snowfall in Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo.
"There can be a little snow and sleet in part of southeastern China this winter as we often see during La Niña," Nicholls said. "Shanghai rarely sees snow, but there is a chance the city can have a touch of the wintry precipitation, especially in January and February."
Since La Niña is not forecast to be nearly as strong as that of the winter of 2010-2011, when there were multiple accumulating snow events in Shanghai, the number of opportunities for snowfall this winter could be limited in the city.
A person walks on a snow-covered bridge in Shanghai, China, Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2010. A strong La Niña during the winter of 2010-2011 brought several snow events to the city. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
Farther south, a swath of southeastern China can expect temperatures to be near average to above average and drier than average with less precipitation than last winter.
Few storms forecast for southwestern Asia, Middle-East
Farther west, much of the area from western China to Nepal, northern Pakistan, Afghanistan and northwestern India is forecast to be drier and warmer than normal. "Less storm systems are likely to affect the region this winter, when compared with last winter, which was rather stormy," Nicholls said.
Fewer storms will mean less stirring of the air overall this winter and, therefore, fewer opportunities for smog to be mixed out of the valleys in Pakistan and northern India, including Delhi.
"Air quality will be a greater concern across these areas with fewer breaks in the haze and smog this winter, compared to last winter," Nicholls said.
An Indian worker demonstrates an anti-smog gun to control dust at the Integrated Exhibition cum Convention Center (IECC) construction site in New Delhi, India, Friday, Oct. 9, 2020. Authorities in New Delhi launched an anti-pollution campaign on Monday in an attempt to curb air pollution levels ahead of winter, when the capital is regularly covered in toxic haze, and warned that filthy air could make the coronavirus pandemic more dangerous. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
With the storms forecast to be less-frequent than average overall, this winter is likely to bring drier and probably warmer conditions than normal over much of the Middle East.
"Much like Europe, La Niña tends to have minimal influence on the Middle-East because these areas are so far removed from the tropical Pacific water temperature fluctuations," Nicholls said.
There can still be a bit of rain and snow in Syria, Jordan, Iraq (Baghdad saw snow for the first time in 12 years last winter), Israel, and perhaps northern Saudi Arabia from the limited storm activity. Some transport of moisture from the Arabian Sea may result in near-average precipitation in Oman and Yemen.
Forecasters are calling for there to be occasional storms that extend from southern Europe, which should reach from Turkey, Ukraine and southwestern Russia to around the Caspian Sea, with some episodes of rain and snow. Precipitation could be near average in northern Iran as a result.
La Niña to influence Southeast Asia rainfall
Waters are typically warmer than average during La Niña over the western part of the Pacific, which creates rising air, showers and thunderstorms.
"Overall wet conditions are forecast from Indonesia and Malaysia to the Southeast Asia mainland," Nicholls said.
These persistent wet conditions can result in areas of flooding.
Tropics to remain a threat this winter
Overall, the total number of tropical storms and typhoons, AccuWeather forecasters expect, will be much less than average for 2020 thanks to the impact of La Niña, which ramped up during the summer and autumn.
As of Oct. 30, 2020, there have been 20 tropical storms, nine of which have become typhoons. The strongest typhoon was Goni, which formed east of the Philippines at the end of October and quickly became a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of at least 120 mph (195 km/h).
La Niña tends to chop down the overall size of the tropical storm development area over the Pacific basin by creating cooler, less-favorable waters over the west-central part of the Ocean. This generally leaves the westernmost part of the basin open for tropical development.
There can still be a small number of tropical storms and typhoons through the end of 2020.
"On average, there are two to three storms in November and one in December," according to AccuWeather's top tropical weather expert Dan Kottlowski.
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"We expect the warm waters and overall rising air over the western Pacific to lead to tropical development over the Philippine and South China seas, especially from December to early January," Nicholls added.
The main impacts from tropical systems will be across the Philippines and Vietnam, but downpours can extend inland over more of Southeast Asia into this winter.
"Since areas from Vietnam and Laos to Cambodia and northern Thailand where affected by several tropical systems during October, the risk of flooding will remain high in these areas," Nicholls said.
Buddhist monks walk through a flooded pagoda following recent rains on the outskirts of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020. A Cambodian disaster official said that more than 10,000 people had been evacuated to safety places after a tropical storm hit the country, causing the flash flood. (AP Photo/Heng Sinith)
"There is the risk that tropical development will persist across the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean, mainly during December," Nicholls continued. "One of these tropical systems could cross southern India or Sri Lanka and enter the Arabian Sea."
Downpours and flooding that blasted part of southern India during the middle of October were associated with a deep depression that crossed the region.
A woman walks carrying a child through floodwaters after heavy rainfall in Hyderabad, India, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020. Record rains and heavy flooding in the southern Indian state of Telangana collapsed houses and killed more than a dozen people, police said Wednesday. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)
"In the absence of tropical features, near- to above-average rainfall is expected across southern India and Sri Lanka into January, but these areas can turn drier later in the winter season," Nicholls said.
Despite the potential of a tropical system to move westward from the Bay of Bengal, across southern India and enter the Arabian sea, the chance of impacts reaching the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula is rather low.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo