Winter Forecast 2013-2014
UPDATE...Link to AccuWeather.com article.
The winter forecast we worked on for Europe factors in many things. Some of those are analog years, which we honed in on, much like the U.S. forecast, but we also took into account some other things based on the knowledge of our team including, not only myself, but also Paul Pastelok, Jason Nicholls and others.
Analog Year Highlights
The one analog year we really honed in on is 1994-1995. That winter was known for one thing, warmth. There were some storms that came into the continent, mainly towards Russia and northern areas, but much of the continent was warm. One of the major cities I want to highlight is London. London is far enough north we may be able to see some snow, as temperatures do allow for chilly weather to come in from the north or the northeast.
London was nearly 3.5 degrees F above normal, with no snow seen. Paris, France, was even warmer, at 4.3 degrees above normal. Hamburg, Germany, had 1.3 inches of snow and temperatures 4.9 degrees above normal. Some of the differences we see with what we are expecting is Moscow, Russia, where temperatures were 7.5 degrees above normal, but the snowfall was 10.2 inches. Either way, we will go into some of these shortly.
Water Temperatures and NAO
Water temperatures are always a key to the weather, especially early in the forecast with the current conditions, and the expectations of NAO through the season. The water temperatures are currently a bit cooler than normal off the coast of France and northern Spain. That could help to keep the weather a bit chilly and unsettled to start in France, but it does look to turn more mild and dry through the rest of the year as we see temperatures even out a bit.
The NAO is a major part of any forecast for Europe, as it is not only the closest water to the continent, but also can make for a major change in the weather as we push some colder or warmer air into the continent. The NAO last year was primarily in the neutral to negative range, and the weather did not really function as much as we see with a negative NAO. In fact, the NAO was one of the most negative that we have seen in some time, which may have been a factor in things. So, as proven last year, the NAO is not the be all, end all, but it is something that can help us forecast the weather. General expectations are for near- to above-normal NAO values, which lead to some milder weather as storms come more in from the ocean and we don't see much in the way of dips in the jet stream.
Forecast:
So, what does this all mean? Below is an image that we created for the winter. Notice the general storm track is more over Scandinavia, northeast Europe and even into Russia. This will lead to some very mild weather over the majority of Europe with a strong high pressure over Italy and even into France.
Parts of Southeast Europe may have some chilly weather at times, along with the Iberian Peninsula, however, we expect the majority of the time to be mild and mostly dry. In fact, we could see some significant departures from normal over parts of France, Italy and Germany for the winter.
Some of the wettest weather will be more into Russia and Scandinavia, but turning later in the forecast, we will see some wet weather pushing into England and Ireland. As for snow, the snow will be truly lacking for most of Europe, which could be a problem for some snow operations. The highest mountains will have snow, but some of the lower levels will not get nearly as much snow around and that may put a pressure on some of them to open even. For snow in major cities, I doubt we see much of any in Europe, and Berlin, which normally has around a foot of snow, may struggle to receive 3-6 inches. London and Paris are going to have little to nothing. The only city which may get some snow is Moscow, but even there, where normally 60-70 inches falls, 40-50 inches is expected.
Also, the Winter Olympics are taking place in Europe, and the cold weather may struggle to come into the host city, but some of the higher-elevation events should be fine with snow. Much like Vancouver, the city may have rain and no snow around, but some of the mountains around the city will likely get feet of snow for the Olympics, so hopefully by then the base for the events is enough to not have to worry about the warmth and lack of snow.
Now, there will be more on AccuWeather.com Wednesday about 8 a.m. Eastern Time, so look out for that and I will post the link once it is on the website in here.
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