UK winter chill to be delayed but not denied
Whilst temperatures this winter across the United Kingdom are expected to average near to slightly above normal, the winter chill may not be denied and could lead to the coldest February across most of England in several years.
The U.K., as a whole, has not had a winter with temperatures averaging more than a degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal since the winter spanning December 2010 to February 2011.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys anticipates that streak to continue this winter.
“Temperatures for the season overall [from December to February] are predicted to average out close to normal or slightly above,” he said. However, Roys expects the season to be defined by two distinctly different halves.
The first half of winter is predicted to be the most active for windstorms with coastal and exposed areas facing the greatest impacts.
“With the windstorms will come warmer-than-normal conditions for December,” Roys said.
Residents should not let the mild start to winter stop them from planning for higher heating costs later in the winter.
“January will be a transition month as a turn to colder weather will come by February,” Roys said.
Cold shots and calmer weather will replace the windstorms later in the winter and early spring as high pressure settles over Scandinavia and northwestern Russia.
“The coldest air when that pattern takes hold would pour into most of England and eastern Scotland, resulting in temperatures below normal in February,” Roys said. “At most, temperatures may average 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal in places such as London, Oxford, Sheffield, Leeds and Edinburgh.”
Temperatures may average just shy of normal across Wales and around normal in Scotland and Northern Ireland, according to Roys.
Typical temperatures in February across the U.K. range from 4-9 C (40s F) for highs and 0-4 C (32-40 F) for overnight lows.
Whilst the late-season chill will not lead to one of the coldest Februaries on record, it may be noticed more by residents across England since three out of the five last winters have ended on a milder note.
Temperatures in London have not averaged below normal in February since 2013.
Last February, temperatures soared to or above 10 C (50 F) on 11 days at London City Airport and 19 days at Heathrow Airport. Temperatures even soared past 16 C (61 F) on 20 February.
Highs typically range from 6 C (43 F) at the start of February to 8 C (46 F) by the end of the month.
Average temperatures in most communities across England in February 2017 were higher than typical March average temperatures.
Despite the chilly end to winter, days that feature snow and ice will total fewer than normal.
Snow and/or ice is only expected to occur in London on three to seven days this winter with February being the most likely time for that to occur, Roys said. The average number of such days in London is 14.
Naming storms helps increase public awareness of severe weather. The United Kingdom and Ireland began naming their storms in 2015 with the help of thousands of members of the public.
