Tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria

A tropical low has formed over the far southern Gulf of Carpentaria near the border of Northern Territory and Queensland. This low will drift toward the east over the next few days and may emerge over the far southwest Gulf later Tuesday or Wednesday before reaching the Cape York Peninsula late this week. The low’s close proximity to the coast will result in very slow development, so we believe there is only a very low chance of tropical cyclone development in the gulf over the next few days.

At least some of the energy from the low over the gulf is expected to emerge over the Coral Sea on Friday or Saturday. Once over the Coral Sea, light wind shear and warm water may allow a tropical cyclone to development over the sea this weekend or early next week. Even if a cyclone forms over the Coral Sea toward the start of next week, the prevailing steering flow should drive it eastward away from Queensland.

Not much change was made to the development risk areas around Australia aside from slightly adjusting the dates. However, a moderate chance of development was added to Indian Ocean well west of Australia for a tropical low forming near 10 south and 90 east.

Even if this low over the Indian Ocean develops as expected, it should move toward the southwest or south-southwest and is unlikely to impact Australia nor any landmasses.

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