Three big dry areas of the country with two getting some welcomed rain in the next two weeks

We have other areas of the country, other than the West, that are experiencing drought conditions. For the Gulf Coast states and interior Southeast, drought conditions continue to worsen. I do not see any significant rainfall in this region the rest of October and perhaps most of November. However, the pattern could change mid-November. Fronts could be stronger, but also the northwest flow can create more dry days that follow.

Across the Northeast, the drought remains where most of the heavy rain from the recent system was over the northern mid-Atlantic and weakened a bit heading toward the Northeast. Take a look at the map below. There will be some rain from time to time the rest of October into early November.

Here is a look at the rainfall over the next five days in the West and particularly California which is also suffering from drought, a long-term drought. The West looks wet, and even Southern California can have some rain as well. The worst of the rain will be in the Northwest. Also, take notice of the dry areas. The southern Plains and Southeast look dry during this period.

We continue to watch the common areas for tropical development, the Caribbean, southern Gulf and southwest Atlantic. Lower upper heights over Caribbean will increase shower and thunderstorm activity the region. Now is there is a slightly better chance for development in the Caribbean due to lower wind shear, but across the Gulf and southwest Atlantic, wind shear will prevent any development. Here is a look at the shear map for Oct. 28. There are light green showing up over the Gulf which means higher wind shear.

We still believe there will be rain in southern California between Oct. 27 and 28. Perhaps even a threat for strong thunderstorms. This is a very strong upper disturbance coming on shore across the central coast with winds aloft strong and aligned. The main threat is heavy rain in a short period of time leading to some flash flooding.

Here is a look at the rain outlook for southern California...

One last note, I do not have the proof, but if we ended the fall season at the end of October, we have to be at or near the warmest fall on record.

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