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Temperatures to plunge 30-50 F with rain for heat-baked north-central US

Ongoing drought and a recent heat wave have boosted the fire risk over northern Plains, but rain and much lower temperatures are on the way which should help crews battling several wildfires across the state.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published May 14, 2025 12:55 PM EDT | Updated May 16, 2025 5:02 AM EDT

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Aerial firefighters contended with heat and smoke while battling several wildfires in northeastern Minnesota. The Camp House and Jenkins Creek fires have burned more than 30 square miles and destroyed around 140 structures.

Dry conditions and, more recently, a surge of extreme heat contributed to wildfires in parts of the north-central United States. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say that some relief is on the way--at least in the short term.

Multiple wildfires broke out in northern Minnesota earlier this week. As of Thursday, they had consumed close to 40,000 acres and were near-zero percent contained. The Jenkins Creek, Camp House and Munger Shaw fires were the largest blazes active in the region.

Stiff breezes, hot air and dry brush have been the main factors contributing to the rapid spread of the fires. Temperatures have hit 90 degrees or higher at International Falls, Minnesota, nicknamed the icebox of the nation, from Sunday through Wednesday.

This, combined with widespread abnormally dry to drought conditions, exists from Minnesota, westward to the Dakotas and Nebraska, as well as the eastern parts of Montana and Wyoming.

There is some good news on the way, however.

A storm system and strong front will push through the region during the latter part of this week with areas of drenching rain and substantially lower temperatures.

A general 1-2 inches of rain with pockets where 2-4 inches of rain may fall will target some of the most extreme drought-stricken areas of the western and central Dakotas and north-central Nebraska into Friday. The heavy rain will be preceded by severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning strikes that could spark new fires.

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The soaking rain is just what the region needs and should help ease any new fires sparked by lightning.

Farther to the east, where some of the largest wildfires are active in Minnesota, there will be severe thunderstorms into Thursday night.

Powerful wind gusts could initially fan the flames of existing fires, especially where little rain falls.

Temperatures will be slashed by 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit in the wake of the front, with highs in the 80s and 90s swapped with highs mainly in the 50s and even lower nighttime temperatures.

By the end of the week, lower temperatures and less wind with sporadic showers may help to quell the fire situation, but given the scope of the fires, they may continue to burn. Stiff breezes from the west and northwest may pose challenges to firefighting efforts.

From 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch of rain is projected to fall on much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin through the end of the week. Locally higher amounts are possible.

Much more rain would be needed to alleviate the abnormally dry, drought and wildfire risk in the region moving forward over much of the northern Plains and part of the Upper Midwest.

More to Read:

Weather Explained: How do wildfires start and spread?
5 ways to protect yourself against wildfire smoke
Damaging storms, tornado threat to intensify in Ohio, Tennessee Valleys

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

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