Sirocco winds impact Italy, tracking a couple of features
There are several features we are tracking for the upcoming week that could produce damaging winds.
The first feature we are watching is in the western Mediterranean on Sunday. This system will track to the northeast into Hungary and southern Poland for Monday and into Tuesday. On Sunday, as this system tracks into northern Italy, a Sirocco wind will be howling across southern and central Italy into the the southwestern coast of the Balkans.
A Sirocco wind is a southerly wind that originates in northern Africa when a storm system is in the western Mediterranean. These winds are typically associated with hot, dry desert air surging northward. There is no time of the year that they occur more then the rest, but are more common during the springtime, where they can last between 10 and 12 hours.
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On Sunday, the Sirocco wind will be gusting between 40 and 50 mph with the typically windy locations gusting over 50 mph. This storm system will also have a line of potentially strong thunderstorms that will move into western Italy on Sunday afternoon into the evening. These storms could produce winds over 50 mph. As the storm pulls away from the western Mediterranean, the northerly winds will fire up across southern coastal France, with gusts between 50-75 mph, though coastal locations will have gusts at times to 50 mph.
As this system moves into eastern Europe on Tuesday, a second system south of Iceland will come barreling down through the eastern British Isles and the western North Sea into western Europe. Guidance is highlighting Wednesday as the day for potential damaging winds. Much of the Isles will be gusting over 40 mph with Ireland, Wales and western England having the best chance to have gusts between 50 and 75 mph. This will not be widespread but very concentrated. Across southern and eastern England, gusts will likely reach to 50 mph, but at this time, this looks as high they will go. There is a small potential for gusts to go higher and closer to 75 mph. Guidance has not come to an agreement to the exact location where these higher gusts will occur at this time. Over the next few days, guidance should be able to have a clearer picture of where these winds are likely to occur. Would not be shocked if by Tuesday, this system gets named by the U.K. Met Office and the Irish Meteorological Service.
Following this second system, we look to the end of the week, where a third storm system will take a similar track to the second system. Confidence is not high on this system producing damaging winds. Guidance solutions suggest winds could be damaging and other solutions show a typical day. It should be noted that the various solutions still have a similar storm track to the second system.
How windy it will get depends on the location of high pressure in the Atlantic and how strong it will be. The tighter the pressure difference between the area of high pressure and the center of the storm will lead to high gusts, while the opposite is true. Right now the biggest threat area for damaging winds is the western British Isles for gusts up to 50 mph. Confidence should grow if guidance over the upcoming days come to an agreement.
Impacts will be mainly isolated across southern coastal France into southern Italy and the western Balkans through the next couple of days. The storm in the western Mediterranean will fuel choppy seas along with coastal flooding that will be moderate in areas that have high seas and strong winds. Isolated-to-scattered power outages are possible across southern Italy with the Sirocco winds. Isolated impacts will be across the British Isles into western Europe, while scattered impacts will likely be across Ireland into western England, where the threat for gusts of 50-75 mph are the highest. The impacts include tree damage, isolated to scattered power outages along with possible coastal flooding and transportation delays. Impacts will be isolated for the end of the week across western British Isles with isolated power outages likely and some transportation delays, but if the guidance comes to an agreement for stronger winds, the scale of impacts being felt will widen.
As we look towards the future, the threat for damaging winds will once again weaken as high pressure wants to dominate across the northern Atlantic. There is a small threat around the end of the second full week of March (11th and 12th), where if high pressure is strong enough and with low pressure in eastern Europe that a tight pressure gradient will be over the British Isles that could produce gusts to 50 mph. At this time confidence is low for damaging winds, main factors will have to come into place for this to happen. Confidence will grow as we get closer to the date and if it continues to be on the guidance.
