‘Hurricane drought’ in the Northeast; is the region prepared?
AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Aug 5, 2025 – Amid an extended stretch without a direct hurricane landfall in the Northeast and New England, AccuWeather® hurricane experts say people and businesses across the region must remain prepared and vigilant because the region is not immune to hurricane impacts; it is climatologically overdue.
> It has been more than a decade since a hurricane made a direct landfall in the Northeast and more than 70 years since a major hurricane struck the region
> AccuWeather® experts say a ‘perfect’ combination of atmospheric conditions are needed for a storm to reach the Northeast
> If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 hit the same region with the same storm surge, flooding and wind impacts today, AccuWeather® experts estimate the total damage and economic loss would be $440 billion
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“The Northeast is climatologically overdue for a direct hurricane landfall,” AccuWeather® Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “This kind of storm will happen again in New England; it’s just a question of when. People have to be prepared.”
A hurricane strikes the Northeast once every 15 to 20 years, according to the historical average. AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva says the region has not experienced a direct Category 1 hurricane landfall, or stronger, in over three decades.
A Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale has sustained winds of 74-95 mph.
“Typically, every 15 to 20 years on average, a hurricane will strike New Jersey on northward into southern New England. A major hurricane—so that's Category 3 or higher—for the Northeast is every 60 to 70 years or so,” DaSilva said.
While Florida and the Gulf Coast face frequent hurricane landfalls, states from New Jersey to Maine have largely escaped direct strikes in recent memory.
The last direct hit came more than three decades ago when Hurricane Bob roared into Rhode Island with sustained winds over 100 mph on Aug. 19, 1991. It tore through New England with deadly storm surge and widespread power outages, causing more than $1.5 billion in damage at the time, or $3.46 billion today. Bob marked the last true hurricane landfall in the Northeast. It was a stark reminder of what these storms can do when they carve a path into the region.
Superstorm Sandy slammed New Jersey on Oct. 29, 2012. Government and other public sources of information declared that Sandy would “not be a hurricane” at landfall and described the storm as "post-tropical". AccuWeather® hurricane experts continued to call it a hurricane, knowing that people take action more critically for a hurricane than for more standard wind and coastal flood warnings, which are issued multiple times each year for these areas. In addition to the coastal damage, Sandy also brought blizzard conditions into the central Appalachians. AccuWeather® was first to accurately forecast 1-3 feet of snow, days in advance. AccuWeather experts estimate the widespread damage, extended power outages, travel impacts and business disruptions from Sandy caused an estimated $210 billion in total damage and economic loss.
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall in Rhode Island on August 22, 2021, and caused significant damage across the northeastern United States. AccuWeather® estimates the total damage and economic loss from Henri at $8 billion to $12 billion.
Other infamous hurricanes striking the Northeast include Hurricane Carol, making landfall on Long Island as a Category 3 storm on Aug. 13, 1954, and Hurricane Donna which hit Long Island as a Category 2 storm on Sept. 12,1960.
While not every storm strikes at peak strength, even weakening hurricanes or post-tropical systems can unleash devastating impacts.
"Most of the time, the Northeast gets impacted by a storm as it is losing wind intensity and becoming a tropical rainstorm," DaSilva explained. "But tropical rainstorms have a history of producing deadly flooding well inland, especially in areas of steep terrain such as in parts of New England."
Why most hurricanes rarely reach the Northeast
AccuWeather® hurricane experts say ocean temperatures play a major role. As hurricanes move north of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, they often encounter cooler waters that lack the heat energy needed to sustain them.
“You typically need sea surface temperatures around 80 degrees to support a hurricane,” DaSilva explained. “Off the coast of New England, the water usually isn’t warm enough to maintain storm strength.”
DaSilva said forward motion is a critical factor for hurricanes to reach the Northeast; a fast-moving storm has a better chance of crossing cooler waters before it begins to weaken.
Wind shear is another limiting factor. These fast-changing winds at different altitudes can disrupt a storm’s structure and cause it to fall apart.
“Wind shear tends to increase with latitude. If it’s too strong, the storm won’t hold together,” DaSilva said. “The presence of dry air can also interfere, getting drawn into the storm’s circulation and weakening it further.”
Even with all those hurdles, a hurricane can still make it—if the setup is just right.
What would steer a hurricane into the Northeast?
Cooler sea surface temperatures off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England often act like a natural speed bump for tropical storms and hurricanes, robbing storms of the fuel they need to survive.
AccuWeather® long-range experts say several large-scale weather patterns have to align at the same time for a hurricane to reach the Northeast coastline.
"You pretty much need a perfect setup to get the perfect storm into New England," AccuWeather® Lead Long-range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "Compared to the Carolinas or the Gulf Coast, conditions can be off a little, and they still get hit hard. But for the Northeast, everything has to line up perfectly."
Three major atmospheric forces play a key role in steering a storm toward landfall from New Jersey to Maine: a Bermuda High in the right place, a dip in the jet stream over the East Coast and a blocking high over eastern Canada.
"First and foremost, you need a strong Bermuda High," DaSilva explained. "You need that Bermuda High to bulge a little bit farther to the west but not too strong. If it's too strong, the storms just get pushed all the way into the United States, into either the Southeast or into the Gulf. If it's too weak, the storms rotate around the Bermuda High and go out to sea."
DaSilva says the location and strength of the jet stream, along with a hurricane's forward motion, are also pivotal factors in a hurricane's reaching the Northeast.
"You need a big dip in the jet stream to come into the East Coast. What that does is it will essentially grab the storm and put it on a pathway going north," DaSilva said.
"An upper-level trough coming through the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley—at the same time you have the Bermuda Ridge over the central Atlantic. It has to come right smack in between," Pastelok added.
But even that’s not enough.
"You also need a blocking high over eastern Canada that shuts off the storm’s escape path and locks it on a collision course for the Northeast," DaSilva said.
And then there's the speed.
"The 1938 hurricane was moving at between 50 and 55 miles per hour by the time it hit Long Island. That allowed the storm to have so much power, even though it was moving over cooler water. The speed of the storm allowed it to maintain much of its intensity upon reaching Long Island and southern New England."
"Water temperatures definitely help," said Pastelok. "If they’re still warm, it’ll maintain a storm's intensity as it heads to New England. If the water is cooler, you’ll see bigger drop-offs in intensity. We saw that with Gloria in 1985. It hit Long Island, but it was already losing wind intensity when it made landfall."
Infamous hurricanes striking the Northeast include Carol, which made landfall on Long Island as a Category 3 hurricane on Aug. 13, 1954, and Hurricane Donna which hit Long Island as a Category 2 storm on Sept. 12,1960.
The damage and loss of life caused by these storms pale in comparison to the monster storm that struck the Northeast with two landfalls nearly 90 years ago.
What if the 1938 hurricane hit today?
The Great New England hurricane of 1938 remains the most catastrophic hurricane on record for the Northeast. It moved at nearly highway speed and arrived with little warning, earning it the nickname the ‘Long Island Express’.
The storm caused between $250 and $450 million in damage in 1938, which is equivalent to roughly $6 to $10 billion adjusted for inflation today.
The “Long Island Express” Hurricane of 1938 claimed more than 700 lives and packed a violent storm surge that reached 17 feet in some areas of the Rhode Island coast. It first made landfall near Bellport, New York before crossing Long Island and making a second landfall near New Haven, Connecticut on Sept. 21, 1938.
AccuWeather® Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, who is a Connecticut native, says the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 destroyed more than 8,900 homes, 2,600 boats, and 2 billion trees in the Category 3 hurricane.
A Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale has sustained winds between 111-129 mph.
“I learned a lot about this storm growing up in Connecticut. My grandfather was living in New London when the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 struck. He told us there was very little warning. They knew it was going to be a stormy day, but people were racing back to their homes when schools and businesses closed early just hours before the hurricane hit. ‘Pop’ told us all about the trees falling all around him. There was catastrophic wind and flood damage across the coast and far inland. It was the storm of record that people have told stories about for generations in the Northeast.”
If a storm similar to the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 hit the same region with the same wind, storm surge, and flooding impacts, AccuWeather® experts estimate the total damage and economic loss today would be $440 billion.
To put this scenario estimate into perspective, AccuWeather® experts estimate the catastrophic inland flooding, coastal wind damage, and storm surge damage from Hurricane Helene last October had a total damage and economic loss of $225 billion to $250 billion.
The deadly wildfires that destroyed thousands of homes and businesses across Southern California during an extreme windstorm in January caused an estimated $250 billion to $275 billion in total damage and economic loss, according to a preliminary estimate from AccuWeather®.
“If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 were to happen today, AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss would reach $440 billion. To put that staggering price tag into perspective, AccuWeather® estimates the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Katrina was $320 billion, adjusted for inflation today,” Porter said.
Despite dramatic advancements in forecasting technology and skill, warnings to the public and safety infrastructure built across the region over the past eight decades, AccuWeather® hurricane experts say the impacts would be more destructive and costly today than in 1938 due to increased population and larger transportation, business, and infrastructure expansion across the region. The population of New England has roughly doubled from 8.4 million people in 1938 to 15.3 million in 2024.
"There were no hurricane warnings in effect when this hurricane made landfall," DaSilva said. "People went to work, people went to school, only knowing really that it was going to be maybe a stormy afternoon and nothing more.”
Staying prepared and vigilant for the next Northeast hurricane
Accu AccuWeather® Weather hurricane experts say people, businesses, officials, and emergency responders across the Northeast and New England should remain vigilant and prepared for potential tropical storm and hurricane impacts this year and throughout the future.
DaSilva, who is a Rhode Island native, says many people living in the Northeast may think hurricanes feel like a distant threat that only impact the Southeast and Gulf Coast, but he warns that a false sense of security can leave people unprepared and vulnerable.
"A lot of people in the Northeast don't take hurricanes seriously because they haven't had one since 1991," DaSilva said. "They think of bad storms as Nor’easters, but hurricanes are much worse.”
DaSilva says storms that reach the Northeast in the future could be stronger than those in the past, due to higher ocean temperatures.
“A long stretch without a landfalling hurricane doesn't mean the risk has gone away,” DaSilva said. The odds of another major hurricane hitting the Northeast are about 1.5 percent in any given year. This is about the same chance of flipping a coin and getting the same result 6 times in a row."
AccuWeather® hurricane experts say everyone across the region should be prepared for potential tropical storm or hurricane impacts this year, even though the Northeast and New England regions are not facing an increased risk of direct impacts this hurricane season.
AccuWeather was the first known source to issue an Atlantic hurricane season forecast in March, predicting 3-6 direct impacts to the U.S. this year.
AccuWeather® hurricane experts say Texas, Louisiana, the western coast of Florida, North Carolina, and Atlantic Canada face a higher risk of direct impacts this hurricane season, compared to the historical average.
AccuWeather® provides forecasts and warnings with Superior Accuracy throughout the Atlantic hurricane season. The AccuWeather® Hurricane Tracker and The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes are available for free to all users on AccuWeather.com and the AccuWeather® app.
The free AccuWeather® app delivers life-saving severe weather warnings often faster, on average, than any other source.
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
New England's hurricane history
Torrential downpours to pose dangerous flash flood risk in southeast US in early August
Flooding and tornado impacts could reach far inland again this Atlantic hurricane season
Extreme weather events are happening more often, having a larger impact on the national economy
AccuWeather Ready: Hurricane preparedness checklist
Hurricane season: A handy guide for beginners
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