Mudslide risk to stay low in Southern California as heaviest rain stays north this week

With rain set to dramatically lessen before reaching Southern California later this week, the threat of additional mudslides will remain low.

After a couple days of spotty showers, dry weather has returned to Southern California and will hold through midweek. A few showers may then return on Thursday.

Similar to the end of this past week, the uptick in moisture this week will be caused by a strong storm moving through the northwestern United States.

A slight drop in temperature and an increased chance of damp weather are expected to extend to Southern California as a result. However, the rain will fizzle as it presses south of Point Conception.

"Motorists traveling north to Central California through the Grapevine may encounter slippery travel as snow levels will fall down to the pass level," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said.

Any showers late this week will be few and far between across Southern California, with minimal impact on cleanup operations.

Crews have taken advantage of the recent drier weather to reopen U.S. 101 to motorists in Santa Barbara County on Sunday, according to the Associated Press. The highway was closed for nearly two weeks after the devastating mudslide was triggered on Jan. 9.

Debris removal efforts will be able to continue uninterrupted, helping communities to prepare for the next influx of potentially heavy rainfall.

While storms are currently being steered into the Northwest, a pattern shift at the end of the month may steer them more directly into the California coast.

“The next chance of any significant rain is during the week of Jan. 28 to Feb. 3,” said AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Evan Duffey.

However, the bulk of these storms is expected to track through central California. Therefore, “even that threat is relatively low at this time,” Duffey said.

“In fact, there is some concern that drought conditions redevelop in Southern California later this spring into summer,” Duffey said.

Regardless, residents should remain alert since even one isolated soaking rainfall can enable a devastating mudslide event.

"The burn scar from the Thomas Fire is so large and close to populated areas that problems may be unavoidable through the entire winter, even in a winter where drought may build," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

The Thomas Fire torched a California state record: 273,400 acres.

"People need to leave the area by evacuation deadlines as they are given," Duffey said. "Once a mudslide begins, there may only be minutes to seconds before a neighborhood is wiped out."

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