Mudslide dangers may increase next week after heavy rain bypasses Southern California Friday

While the weather pattern does not favor widespread heavy rain in the short term, the chance of rainfall does exist for mudslide-ravaged and vulnerable areas of Southern California during the fourth week of January.

Recovery efforts continue in the aftermath of deadly mudslides in Montecito, Santa Barbara County, California, on Jan. 9, 2018. The list of fatalities has risen to 20 as of Monday, according to the Los Angeles Times.

From 2 to 5 inches of rain fell on Santa Barbara County during the rainstorm that spanned Jan. 8 and 9. The Thomas Fire left the landscape charred and barren of ground vegetation that would normally slow the rate of runoff.

The wintertime is the rainy season in Southern California. While winter rainfall and spring snowmelt provide much of the water supply to the region, it can also come with dangers such as flooding and mudslides.

Santa Barbara receives an average of 3.50 inches of rain during January. While much of the rain during this month and other months into March typically occur during major storms, lesser storms also contribute.

Two storms are being monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists for rainfall in the coming two weeks.

Late-week storm to bring sporadic rainfall to Southern California

A storm is forecast to bring locally heavy rain and mountain snow to Washington, Oregon and Northern California through Thursday night.

While the bulk of the rain and snow from that storm will stay north of Southern California, sporadic showers are likely to sweep through during Friday and Friday night.

"At this time, it appears the rainfall at the end of this week will not be heavy enough to trigger [additional] mudslides, even in recent burn areas," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark.

Most low-elevation areas are likely to receive less than 0.10 of an inch of rain from the late-week storm. Some areas may get no rain at all.

Only minor debris flows, which could partially block secondary roads in the hilly terrain, are possible.

Motorists should be on the lookout for rocks and other debris in the roads as well as be wary of localized slick conditions.

Mudslide risk may increase if soaking rain materializes next week

The setup during the fourth week of January may return the potential for locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding and a significant risk of mudslides.

A shift in the jet stream may send in more significant Pacific Ocean moisture and increase the chance of soaking rain in part of Southern California.

The first legs of that moisture will reach Northern California at the start of the week and is then forecast to drift southward as the week progresses.

Rainfall may reach some areas near and south of Point Conception, California, on Tuesday night, Jan. 23, or Wednesday, Jan. 24.

If the anticipated dip in the jet stream sets up farther inland, then heavy rain may again avoid coastal areas of Southern California.

AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the potential for rain, flooding and mudslides in the days ahead.

Be ready ahead of the next round of mudslides

Even if heavy rain and additional mudslides do not occur over the next couple of weeks, additional significant rainstorms are likely with an elevated risk of mudslides over the next couple of months.

The Santa Barbara area receives an average of 4 inches of rain during February and more than 3 inches of rain during March.

"People need to leave the area by evacuation deadlines as they are given," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey. "Once a mudslide begins, there may only be minutes to seconds before a neighborhood is wiped out."

The time to prepare is before a mudslide has developed.

"Be sure all family members know what to do and where to meet in the house," Duffey said.

Don't forget your pets and their needs.

"Store valuable papers and medications in a strong box that can be grabbed at a moment's notice," Duffey said. "For insurance purposes, it is good practice to have a video take of valuable items such as household goods, jewelry and collectibles well ahead of time. Check your insurance policy to make sure these items are covered."

It's a good idea to pack non-perishable food and water for a couple of days in a backpack or suitcase that can be quickly taken along.

Have a box ready to toss irreplaceable family photographs in to bring with you in the case of an evacuation.

Be sure to carry or wear a solid pair of shoes or boots since you may be walking in mud and on debris when you return.

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