Monitoring South China Sea
The satellite image below continues to show only one area of low pressure to the southeast of Japan (Invest 94W). However, another area of development that might be a greater concern will be across the South China Sea early in the coming week.
First, Invest 94W is located to the southeast of Japan, well removed from any land. There remains a small chance that this will become a tropical depression during the next 24 hours as it drifts to the northeast. Regardless of development, it will not affect mainland Japan and no impacts are expected.
The second area of concern will be across the South China Sea early in the coming week. A weak disturbance tracking across the region could develop into a tropical depression as it heads towards southern China. Wind shear may lessen just enough to allow this low pressure to become better organized, though due to the amount of time it will have across the South China Sea, it should not become a very strong system.
At this time it seems possible that a tropical depression or tropical storm will affect Hainan and southern Guanxi around the middle of the coming week. Damaging wind is not expected to be a significant threat at this time. Heavy rain and isolated flooding will probably be the larger concern.
Other than the aforementioned areas of development, we are also monitoring an area to the east of the Philippines for possible development during the end of the month. There remains low confidence in this, but there are some indications that a tropical system will try to develop within this area. If anything were to form, the Philippines could have impacts.
