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Lake-effect snow machine to shift into high gear as frigid air infiltrates US

By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist & Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist & Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Nov 6, 2019 5:03 PM EDT

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The Michigan Snowman Cam at Gaylord, Michigan, showed heavy snow falling Tuesday as an Alberta clipper made its way across the Great Lakes.

Until recently, it's been a relatively warm but wet autumn across the Great Lakes so far. However, it looks as though Mother Nature wants to quickly turn the page right into winter. Persistent shots of cold Canadian air into next week will trigger more lake-effect snow.

As cold air pours over the relatively warm Great Lakes, a perfect recipe for accumulating snow is in store across the typical lake-effect snow belts.

The first round of lake-effect snow began on Thursday morning along the western Great Lakes.

Although relatively short-lived, with snow continuing into early Friday, most are not expected to receiving more than a few inches of fresh snow.

Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches are expected through Friday morning, with the more persistent bands totalling 3-6 inches. The heaviest snowfall in northern Michigan and southern Ontario, where up to a foot of snow could be possible.

Heavier snow squalls bringing quickly accumulating snow and visibility quickly dropping to near-zero will create some travel headaches across the Great Lakes for a time into Friday morning.

One of the greatest dangers with lake-effect snow is how quickly conditions can change over the course of a few minutes or a few miles.

Motorists throughout the region will have to plan for the possibility of near-whiteout conditions, snow-covered roads and gusty winds over the course of their routes.

Gusty winds can blow snow back onto roadways and create pockets of poor visibility in open areas even where snowfall has ended.

It is common in November to get snowfall accumulations from lake-effect events downwind of the Great Lakes.

The lakes are still very warm compared to the winterlike air that will pour into the region, and this results in an extremely unstable environment. In the most extreme cases, thundersnow can occur within lake-effect snow bands.

Static Lake-Effect cross section

A strong area of high pressure will quickly build in by later Friday, effectively squashing the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days.

Another quick-hitting system will move across the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing a generally light snowfall to the Great Lakes.

Perhaps more importantly, this quick-moving system will usher in another push of Arctic air that will set the stage for more snow to generate early next week.

Related:

Experts debunk 4 winter driving myths
Life-saving items to keep in your car in case a winter emergency happens
What is lake-effect snow?
Snow squalls can be beautiful and dangerous, but what exactly are they?

A storm that will gather in the center of the country this weekend is expected to stretch into parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

The storm will disrupt the wind flow enough to limit lake-effect snow for some locations.

"The winds ushering in the cold air appear to be a little more northerly with this second wave," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Gawryla.

Parts of northern Wisconsin, Michigan, northern India and northern Ohio may see the highest snowfall totals in the set up.

Meanwhile, the storm looks to dump snow on some of the lake-effect belts in Pennsylvania and New York.

Should the track of the next week's impending storm change and move farther away from the Great Lakes, there could instead be more lake-effect snow in western Pennsylvania and New York.

"Many times, these specifics are difficult to pin down more than a few days out," Brian Wimer, AccuWeather winter weather expert, said.

Download the free AccuWeather app to see the latest forecast for your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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