It Is All About Chanchu

May 15th, 2006

Whereas weather eyes in the US are focused upon flooding New England rain, elsewhere, mighty Typhoon Chanchu is the weather kingpin. In truth, I was not at work (Sunday) when Chanchu was rated a Super Typhoon packing 135-knot/250-kph highest sustained winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The satellite loop shows that it was an awesome storm at the time.

Even now, this big tropical cyclone commands respect, as the JTWC, in its latest advisory (late Monday evening, local time), has reckoned its top winds to be 115 knots/215 kph. If rated on the Saffir-Simpson scale, Chanchu would thus earn a minimal Four. Slow-moving Chanchu has taken on a northerly tack after having drifted westward throughout the weekend.

Northerly will be the primary heading of this big storm most, if not all, of the way leading to a likely landfall in South China. Three global forecast models at this time show a landfall, albeit along a more easterly track than was indicated late last week (when last I worked). Concensus is now for a landfall east of Hong Kong and Shenzhen in the region of eastern Guangdong. Approach to land is shown during the local daytime of Wednesday (overnight hours of Tuesday here in the US). The JTWC indicates an early night-time landfall Wednesday.

Chanchu seems to be beyond its zenith in strength, but it still holds potential to unleash 100-mph/160-kph near its landfall. What is certain is that a landfalling Typhoon Chanchu will unleash flooding rains with highest amounts of 10-16 inches/250-400 mm favored along and to the east of the direct path.

Chanchu is already lofting moisture high into the atmosphere, much of it recurving into the sub-tropical westerlies aimed for southwestern Japan. This interaction with the westerlies will account for another way that Chanchu will shape East Asian weather inasmuch as the southwestern one-half to two-thirds of Japan will see soaking and perhaps excessive rains at times through this week.

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