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India's northeast monsoon officially begins as fears shift from drought to flooding

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Oct 14, 2019 2:36 PM EDT

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The northeast monsoon officially began on Wednesday and will bring vital rainfall to parts of southeast India into December.

Above-normal rainfall in recent months has alleviated dire water shortages in Tamil Nadu; however, rainfall during the annual northeast monsoon season is essential for next year's water supplies.

Prior to the recent uptick in rainfall across southeast India, a prolonged drought had forced water rationing and extreme measures to be taken in order to ensure water continued to flow in Chennai, home to roughly 10 million people.

India AP 7/29

In this Wednesday, July 17, 2019, photo, workers fill train wagons with drinking water piped in from the Mettur dam on the Cauvery River, at Jolarpet railway station, about 216 kilometers (135 miles) from Chennai in Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. On its daily sojourn, the 50-tank train carries two and a half million liters of drinking water, a small but critical source for Chennai’s water board, which is employing an army of trucks to deliver 500 million liters of water a day since desiccated reservoirs and fast-diminishing groundwater forced the city to ration public tap water to millions of users for months. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup)

AP Photo

Conditions worsened to the point that a train was used to transport water to the city from more than 200 km (125 miles) away in order prevent a water shortage disaster.

That train finally made its final voyage on Oct. 8 after officials declared that recent rainfall had replenished soil moisture.

A prolonged southwest monsoon has resulted in the Krishna River flowing steadily and water being diverted into the Poondi reservoir, a vital water source for Chennai.

Rain returned to Chennai on Tuesday night as a thunderstorm brought a burst of heavy rainfall. More rain fell on Wednesday as the monsoon's arrival was officially declared.

The first full day on the declared monsoon, Thursday, came with 50 mm (1.96 inches) of rainfall for Chennai.

“The Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country and simultaneously Northeast monsoon rains have commenced over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala,” the India Meteorological Department said in a statement on Twitter.

Downpours are forecast to become more widespread across Tamil Nadu and neighboring parts of Andhra Pradesh in the coming days, bringing more beneficial rainfall to the region.

Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh receive roughly 70 percent of their yearly rainfall from October to mid-December, making rainfall during this period essential to future water supplies during the following year.

While this week's rainfall will be largely welcome, there will be the risk for local flooding and travel disruptions during the heaviest downpours.

650x366_12211627_ap_103246594822

A man carries a dog and wades through a flooded street in Chennai, in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015. (AP Photo)

Another concern is that an early start to the monsoon season will elevate the risk for flooding as the season continues into December.

"Near-normal rainfall is expected across Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu, with above-normal rainfall in southern Tamil Nadu," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

One wildcard will be the risk for tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal.

"The greatest risk for tropical cyclones to develop will be from late October through November," said Nicholls.

Related:

India Weather Center
Interactive India weather satellite
Detailed Chennai weather forecast

These storms can bring tremendous amounts of rainfall and cause significant flooding.

While Nicholls expects these storms to generally track northward toward Bangladesh or Myanmar, a direct hit on southeast India cannot be ruled out and may result in well above-normal seasonal rainfall for the region impacted.

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