Catastrophic wildfires in Maui: AccuWeather estimates damage, economic loss of $8 to $10 billion
AccuWeather experts break down the factors that led to the disaster -- and estimate the cost of the "heartbreaking wildfire tragedy."
AccuWeather’s Jonathan Porter stresses the long-term impacts facing Hawaii, after deadly wildfires in Maui County caused at least 36 fatalities and destroyed many homes in the town of Lahaina.
AccuWeather estimates that the total damage and economic toll of the catastrophic wildfires in Hawaii that decimated Lahaina, a historic town on the island of Maui, is $14 to $16 billion.
At least 99 lives were claimed by the destructive Maui blazes, CNN reports. Upwards of 2,200 buildings have been destroyed, according to Gov. Josh Green.
According to CNN, the fire now ranks as the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than 100 years, based on research from the National Fire Protection Association.
"It’s going to also be a natural disaster that’s going to take an incredible amount of time to recover from," Hawaii Gov. Josh Green said on Saturday.
AccuWeather's damage and economic cost estimate is preliminary, as the full extent of the destruction is not yet clear.
What factors led to the wildfire disaster?
"As we’ve seen in several other recent natural disasters, several different factors seem to have conspired together in the same place at the same time to produce the heartbreaking wildfire tragedy in Maui," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
Wildfire wreckage is shown Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. The search of the wildfire wreckage on the Hawaiian island of Maui on Thursday revealed a wasteland of burned out homes and obliterated communities as firefighters battled the stubborn blaze making it the deadliest in the U.S. in recent years. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
The first factor behind the cataclysmic fires may seem counterintuitive. Parts of the region picked up more rainfall than the historical average during the first half of last winter. The Kahului International Airport on Maui observed precipitation above the historical average during December and January.
"This can lead to greater growth of grasses and other vegetation than what might occur in other years," Porter explained.
On top of that, non-native vegetation covers approximately a quarter of Hawaii’s land area, and the invasive plants, which include grasses and shrubs, can turn highly flammable in the dry season, an expert told CNN.
From February through July, each month yielded precipitation below the historical average, Porter said. This below-average rainfall in recent months caused vegetation to dry out. However, even with dry fuel, fires need a spark and a means to spread.
Those who survived the catastrophic wildfires on Hawaii’s Maui island say it was like a war zone as people fled for their lives.
"Unusually gusty downslope winds in recent days accelerated by the differences in atmospheric pressure from a strong area of high pressure well north of Hawaii and Hurricane Dora passing well south of Hawaii further rapidly dried out these grasses and other vegetation, leading to a tinder-box situation, ripe for any fire to grow rapidly," Porter said. The same winds helped to fan the flames at a dangerously fast rate.
As to what started the fires, officials are still investigating. "We don't know what actually ignited the fires," Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, commander general of the Hawaii Army National Guard, said at a briefing Wednesday.
Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed well south of Hawaii, about 800 miles away. It was an intense but compact storm with hurricane-force winds only extending 30 miles out from its center Wednesday as the catastrophe unfolded. Tropical-storm-force winds stretched out farther at about 115 miles Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Dora's maximum sustained winds briefly peaked at 145 mph early Thursday morning. Gusts reached as high as 170 mph.
A close-up of major Hurricane Dora, as seen on AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite, early Wednesday morning, Aug. 9, 2023.
"This makes Dora the strongest hurricane of the season thus far in the central Pacific basin, and third-strongest in the entire Pacific Ocean, behind only Typhoons Mawar and Khanun," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said.
The National Weather Service (NWS) noted that the high winds funneled between Dora and the area of high pressure to the north combined with low humidity on the island to create "dangerous fire weather conditions."
Devastating economic toll of the infernos
Much of Maui’s economy is based on tourism, with some estimating that tourism accounts for 75% of the revenue generated on the island. That industry will be hard hit, and it will take months, if not longer, to recover.
Communications and power infrastructure have also been severely affected by the disaster, leaving thousands without means to contact emergency services or their loved ones.
Wildfire wreckage is shown Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. The search of the wildfire wreckage on the Hawaiian island of Maui on Thursday revealed a wasteland of burned out homes and obliterated communities as firefighters battled the stubborn blaze making it the deadliest in the U.S. in recent years. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Hospitals have been overwhelmed by burn patients and individuals affected by smoke inhalation, further straining emergency response efforts.
AccuWeather’s damage estimate incorporates independent methods to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of the storm, including both insured and uninsured losses. It factors in damages to property, job and wage losses, impacts to crops, infrastructure damage, interruption of the supply chain, auxiliary business losses, and flight delays or cancellations.
The estimate also accounts for the costs of evacuations, relocations, emergency management, and government expenses for cleanup operations.
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The extent of the devastation calls for a long and challenging recovery process that will require the collective efforts of the community and support from authorities.
"This is yet another reminder of the tremendous risk to people and property posed by wildfires, which can occur outside of areas and times of the year that most people may expect the greatest risk for wildfires," Porter added.
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