Behind the scenes: Forecasting an unforgettable winter storm
Predicting the weather, especially for a storm that has been referred to as the “Super Bowl” of winter storms, is very much a “team sport” at AccuWeather. Meteorologists break down what it’s like to craft and deliver such a critical forecast.
By
Allison Finch, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Feb 4, 2022 3:06 PM EDT
|
Updated Feb 4, 2022 3:45 PM EDT
Millions are digging out after the Northeast was slammed by a powerful storm system that dropped up to 2.5 feet of snow.
The blizzard of January 2022 will go down in the history books after shattering records and delivering heavy snowfall from the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Southeastern New England was among the hardest-hit areas, with snowfall totals topping 30 inches in Stoughton, Massachusetts, and wind gusts over 100 mph in Wellfleet, Massachusetts.
But behind the scenes, years of combined experience, education and forecasting led to an accurate forecast ahead of the storm. A success story like this forecast serves as a good reminder on National Weatherperson's Day as to why AccuWeather meteorologists wanted to make a career out of studying the atmosphere and making incredibly complex forecasts.
While the average meteorologist will forecast more winter storms in their lifetime than they can count on both hands, a major storm like this will be unforgettable. Here are some of those memorable moments, told by none other than the meteorologists who were at the center of what was a most complicated forecast. Below is an oral history of the forecasters' thought processes in the days leading up to the ferocious blizzard and what it was like for them to finally watch the storm unfold after days of predictions.
Jonathan Porter, Chief AccuWeather Meteorologist: In a situation like this, we know a lot of people are relying on [AccuWeather], and it makes us treat big storms like it's the Super Bowl. Just like a team would prepare for the Super Bowl, we're going to do the same kind of thing. We're going to prepare for making sure that we've got every angle covered and we've thought about every possible aspect of the storm.
According to an AccuWeather analysis, this winter storm affected more than 105 million people from Florida to Maine. In comparison, 91.63 million people watched the Super Bowl in 2021, according to Sports Media Watch.
Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist: I've been doing this for 30 years, and I think the feeling of anxiety and obsession hasn't changed one bit. The reason I use those words is because this is where your reputation is won and lost. When you have an East Coast snowstorm, this is where reputations are won and lost.
East Coast snowstorms are notoriously challenging to forecast due to all of the changing factors and large population. The placement of the center of the storm can have a big effect on how many people are impacted. Often, meteorologists refer to the "40/70 benchmark," which is where 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude meet. If the center of the storm tracks to the west of this benchmark, it is likely that the highly populated I-95 corridor will receive mostly rain and the heaviest of the snow will be farther inland. If the center of this storm tracks to the east of the benchmark, then the I-95 corridor will receive snow. The amount of snow depends on the strength of the storm.
Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather Meteorologist: Forecasts, especially for all these big storms, can be tough especially when [the storm is] impacting such a wide area. Our big mission here at AccuWeather is protecting lives and property, so we want to make sure that our forecasts not only are accurate, but people are actually able to interpret them and use them to make decisions about these bigger storms.
Dan Pydynowski, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist: There's always an empathy side of it. The storm disrupts people's lives, and there are always negative consequences of it.
Bernie Rayno analyzed the looming nor'easter for AccuWeather viewers in the days ahead of the storm. (AccuWeather)
Jonathan: I think, for me, forecasting a storm like this is a team sport. I think that is the real uniqueness and the power of AccuWeather.
Mary: We forecast by consensus, which basically means that before we send out a forecast, every forecaster has a chance to analyze it and share their own thoughts, so you aren't issuing a forecast alone.
Dan: We really try to work together, we have discussions, have debates, but then the team always tries to come together to form the best consensus and best forecast possible. I've worked here for 18 years now, and through all the storms, there has always been one theme: people's willingness to work together and help each other out to make sure we're getting the best forecast out the door.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Bernie: We all had the same messaging and confidence level, and I think that allowed our messages to be pretty clear through all of our platforms.
Jonathan: Big events like this, everybody is all hands on deck. Everybody is contributing their expertise. As AccuWeather's chief meteorologist, it's always exciting for me to see the passion that our team has. Bernie Rayno, who works on our network, and Dean Devore, who is on major radio stations across the county, came in between their broadcasts. They came off the network or radio and spent their five minutes with us on the operations floor talking about the weather and what other ways we could enhance the forecast that we were providing.
AccuWeather meteorologists on the operations floor of the headquarters located in State College, Pennsylvania. (AccuWeather)
Dan: The most stressful part is two to three days in advance when you're putting all the forecasts together and have to put that initial forecast out. You're going to have to make changes between then and the start of the storm, but trying to get it as accurate as possible is the most stressful.
Jonathan: It was in that process of forecasting, we realized we're talking about a dangerous, life-threatening blizzard that is going to create serious and damaging impacts over big parts of the northeastern U.S.
Mary: No matter the ultimate track of this storm, we knew it was going to be pretty impactful.
Bernie: There was a laser focus on this storm from the moment we issued the snowfall map to the moment it started snowing.
Jonathan: Growing up in Connecticut, East Coast snowstorms are what got me into meteorology. This one, in particular, I think was one of the most challenging forecasts.
Dan: I’ll be honest, I was a little nervous that our initial forecast wasn't that good because the models were all over the place.
Jonathan: We use over 175 different forecast models here at AccuWeather. I don't remember a storm in the last few years where there has been so much of a variation in the forecast models.
Mary: The models are a great tool, but they’re not perfect because they operate from initial conditions that could be skewed.
Bernie: You have to trust your meteorology, methodology and your team because the forecast models are just going to pull you in many directions. That's the nature of East Coast storms with forecast models.
Jonathan: We did know the most significant impacts were going to be over southern New England.
Bernie: But, many people aggressively questioned our forecast on Thursday. I can't tell you how many people told me we were wrong, New York wasn't going to get a flake and we were overplaying the storm.
Jonathan: It was a wild ride because all of the computer models were all over the place, and trust me, there were some very, very long discussions [internally] but we never changed the forecast.
Joanna Cooke shovels out her car, Saturday, Jan. 29, 2022, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Bernie: You're on this long, windy road, and there's an end, but you don't know if you've steered off course. It was about Thursday afternoon, I said, "You know what -- we were right on this right from the get-go; this is going to work out exactly as we thought."
Dan: The forecast we initially issued actually held up pretty well, and it doesn't always work like that.
Mary: Overall, I think we gave our customers and people looking at our app a pretty good idea of what was going to happen even days in advance.
Jonathan: It ended up being one the best forecasts that we've made in decades.
Bernie: I'll never forget Saturday morning; it was 5 a.m., I couldn't sleep and got on AccuWeather, looked at the radar and said that's exactly the way I thought it would look!
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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News / Weather News
Behind the scenes: Forecasting an unforgettable winter storm
Predicting the weather, especially for a storm that has been referred to as the “Super Bowl” of winter storms, is very much a “team sport” at AccuWeather. Meteorologists break down what it’s like to craft and deliver such a critical forecast.
By Allison Finch, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Feb 4, 2022 3:06 PM EDT | Updated Feb 4, 2022 3:45 PM EDT
Millions are digging out after the Northeast was slammed by a powerful storm system that dropped up to 2.5 feet of snow.
The blizzard of January 2022 will go down in the history books after shattering records and delivering heavy snowfall from the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Southeastern New England was among the hardest-hit areas, with snowfall totals topping 30 inches in Stoughton, Massachusetts, and wind gusts over 100 mph in Wellfleet, Massachusetts.
But behind the scenes, years of combined experience, education and forecasting led to an accurate forecast ahead of the storm. A success story like this forecast serves as a good reminder on National Weatherperson's Day as to why AccuWeather meteorologists wanted to make a career out of studying the atmosphere and making incredibly complex forecasts.
While the average meteorologist will forecast more winter storms in their lifetime than they can count on both hands, a major storm like this will be unforgettable. Here are some of those memorable moments, told by none other than the meteorologists who were at the center of what was a most complicated forecast. Below is an oral history of the forecasters' thought processes in the days leading up to the ferocious blizzard and what it was like for them to finally watch the storm unfold after days of predictions.
The 'Super Bowl' of snowstorms
Jonathan Porter, Chief AccuWeather Meteorologist: In a situation like this, we know a lot of people are relying on [AccuWeather], and it makes us treat big storms like it's the Super Bowl. Just like a team would prepare for the Super Bowl, we're going to do the same kind of thing. We're going to prepare for making sure that we've got every angle covered and we've thought about every possible aspect of the storm.
According to an AccuWeather analysis, this winter storm affected more than 105 million people from Florida to Maine. In comparison, 91.63 million people watched the Super Bowl in 2021, according to Sports Media Watch.
Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist: I've been doing this for 30 years, and I think the feeling of anxiety and obsession hasn't changed one bit. The reason I use those words is because this is where your reputation is won and lost. When you have an East Coast snowstorm, this is where reputations are won and lost.
East Coast snowstorms are notoriously challenging to forecast due to all of the changing factors and large population. The placement of the center of the storm can have a big effect on how many people are impacted. Often, meteorologists refer to the "40/70 benchmark," which is where 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude meet. If the center of the storm tracks to the west of this benchmark, it is likely that the highly populated I-95 corridor will receive mostly rain and the heaviest of the snow will be farther inland. If the center of this storm tracks to the east of the benchmark, then the I-95 corridor will receive snow. The amount of snow depends on the strength of the storm.
Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather Meteorologist: Forecasts, especially for all these big storms, can be tough especially when [the storm is] impacting such a wide area. Our big mission here at AccuWeather is protecting lives and property, so we want to make sure that our forecasts not only are accurate, but people are actually able to interpret them and use them to make decisions about these bigger storms.
Dan Pydynowski, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist: There's always an empathy side of it. The storm disrupts people's lives, and there are always negative consequences of it.
Bernie Rayno analyzed the looming nor'easter for AccuWeather viewers in the days ahead of the storm. (AccuWeather)
Forecasting at AccuWeather is a 'team sport'
Jonathan: I think, for me, forecasting a storm like this is a team sport. I think that is the real uniqueness and the power of AccuWeather.
Mary: We forecast by consensus, which basically means that before we send out a forecast, every forecaster has a chance to analyze it and share their own thoughts, so you aren't issuing a forecast alone.
Dan: We really try to work together, we have discussions, have debates, but then the team always tries to come together to form the best consensus and best forecast possible. I've worked here for 18 years now, and through all the storms, there has always been one theme: people's willingness to work together and help each other out to make sure we're getting the best forecast out the door.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Bernie: We all had the same messaging and confidence level, and I think that allowed our messages to be pretty clear through all of our platforms.
Jonathan: Big events like this, everybody is all hands on deck. Everybody is contributing their expertise. As AccuWeather's chief meteorologist, it's always exciting for me to see the passion that our team has. Bernie Rayno, who works on our network, and Dean Devore, who is on major radio stations across the county, came in between their broadcasts. They came off the network or radio and spent their five minutes with us on the operations floor talking about the weather and what other ways we could enhance the forecast that we were providing.
AccuWeather meteorologists on the operations floor of the headquarters located in State College, Pennsylvania. (AccuWeather)
Issuing the forecast
Dan: The most stressful part is two to three days in advance when you're putting all the forecasts together and have to put that initial forecast out. You're going to have to make changes between then and the start of the storm, but trying to get it as accurate as possible is the most stressful.
Jonathan: It was in that process of forecasting, we realized we're talking about a dangerous, life-threatening blizzard that is going to create serious and damaging impacts over big parts of the northeastern U.S.
Mary: No matter the ultimate track of this storm, we knew it was going to be pretty impactful.
Bernie: There was a laser focus on this storm from the moment we issued the snowfall map to the moment it started snowing.
An 'especially tricky' forecast
Jonathan: Growing up in Connecticut, East Coast snowstorms are what got me into meteorology. This one, in particular, I think was one of the most challenging forecasts.
Dan: I’ll be honest, I was a little nervous that our initial forecast wasn't that good because the models were all over the place.
Jonathan: We use over 175 different forecast models here at AccuWeather. I don't remember a storm in the last few years where there has been so much of a variation in the forecast models.
Mary: The models are a great tool, but they’re not perfect because they operate from initial conditions that could be skewed.
Bernie: You have to trust your meteorology, methodology and your team because the forecast models are just going to pull you in many directions. That's the nature of East Coast storms with forecast models.
Jonathan: We did know the most significant impacts were going to be over southern New England.
Bernie: But, many people aggressively questioned our forecast on Thursday. I can't tell you how many people told me we were wrong, New York wasn't going to get a flake and we were overplaying the storm.
Jonathan: It was a wild ride because all of the computer models were all over the place, and trust me, there were some very, very long discussions [internally] but we never changed the forecast.
Joanna Cooke shovels out her car, Saturday, Jan. 29, 2022, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
The end of the road
Bernie: You're on this long, windy road, and there's an end, but you don't know if you've steered off course. It was about Thursday afternoon, I said, "You know what -- we were right on this right from the get-go; this is going to work out exactly as we thought."
Dan: The forecast we initially issued actually held up pretty well, and it doesn't always work like that.
Mary: Overall, I think we gave our customers and people looking at our app a pretty good idea of what was going to happen even days in advance.
Jonathan: It ended up being one the best forecasts that we've made in decades.
Bernie: I'll never forget Saturday morning; it was 5 a.m., I couldn't sleep and got on AccuWeather, looked at the radar and said that's exactly the way I thought it would look!
SEE ALSO:
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
Report a Typo