February 27, 2019

AccuWeather’s US tornado forecast shows 4 states face the highest risk this year

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

February 27, 2019, 2:52:04 PM EST

AccuWeather predicts there will be 1,075 tornadoes in 2019, which is nine percent more than the 987 tornadoes in 2018. However, the figure is six percent fewer than the U.S. annual average of 1,141.

The 525 tornadoes expected from March through May is almost exactly the normal average of 526 from March through May. In 2018, just 345 occurred from March through May.

AccuWeather projects a higher frequency of severe weather risks in the traditional Tornado Alley. The states to be impacted the most will include Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Texas and Nebraska.

“We believe that the more traditional severe weather region of the central and southern Plains will have a higher potential for tornadoes and severe weather more frequently than they have experienced on average the past three years,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

This forecast was shared with AccuWeather’s subscription clients last week and now is made available to the public free of charge as a public service.

“We believe warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico will lead to increased moisture transport from the Gulf over the region and ultimately a higher frequency of severe weather in these areas,” Pastelok said.

Last year, the U.S. set record lows for the number of fatalities and the number of “violent” tornadoes, those with estimated wind speeds of 166 mph or higher. Tornadoes killed just 10 Americans last year, the lowest number since record-keeping began in 1875. The previous record low total was 12 in 1910. Tornadoes cause an average of 80 U.S. fatalities annually.

Tornadoes are ranked on the Enhanced Fujita Scale– from EF0 (the weakest) to EF5 – and 2018 was the first year since these records began in 1950 that there was not at least one EF4 or EF5 tornado in the U.S.

The number of tornadoes reported annually has been rising over the past few decades mainly because more are reported as the U.S. population has risen and more people have access to mobile devices and cameras. Many tornadoes of the past were not seen or recorded; this change may amount to an increase of reported tornadoes of up to 20 percent over the last 40 years and 10 percent over the past 20 years.

However, tornado-related fatalities have been trending downward despite more people living in tornado-prone areas. The reasons for this trend include advances in weather science and technology, the increasing accuracy of warnings and the effectiveness of warning methods such as through mobile apps, and better cooperation between government weather services and the American weather industry that includes AccuWeather.

The AccuWeather Ready site includes educational weather news and videos, facts about the potential health impacts of different weather events, safety tips and resources, personalized weather preparedness plans, detailed checklists, and more. Users also can receive severe weather push notifications in the AccuWeather app on iOS and Android.

Report a Typo

Weather News

Comments

Comments that don't add to the conversation may be automatically or manually removed by Facebook or AccuWeather. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Weather News

Thunderstorms bring the chance for more delays as the Little League World Series continues

Weather News - August 17, 2019, 11:21:19 AM EDT

Without much of a change in the pattern, thunderstorms will be around in Pennsylvania for the next several days.
Severe thunderstorms, flash flood threat to target the Plains, Midwest through the weekend

Weather News - August 17, 2019, 8:30:52 AM EDT

Many locations have already had to deal with multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the past week and will have to endure additional rounds of torrential downpours, damaging winds, frequent lightning and possibly even an isolated tornado through the weekend.
Paleontologists unearth remains of giant, human-sized penguin

Weather News - August 16, 2019, 1:33:35 PM EDT

Researchers discovered a new species of penguin that roamed the earth about 60 million years ago, stood over 5 feet tall and weighed nearly 180 pounds.
'Lucky to be alive': Kayakers capture harrowing close encounter with collapsing glacier on video

Weather News - August 16, 2019, 1:58:51 PM EDT

"We know we were way too close, and that we are lucky we didn't get hurt," one of the kayakers said afterward. But they did catch a must-see moment on camera.
More snow, chilly air aim at southeastern Australia to end the weekend

Weather News - August 16, 2019, 1:00:06 PM EDT

As winter hangs on across Australia, another round of snow is expected to close out this weekend in parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales.
China and Taiwan to Japan on alert for a new tropical development in the aftermath of Krosa's deadly blow

Weather News - August 16, 2019, 12:39:05 PM EDT

If a new tropical depression or storm forms, impacts could range "anywhere from Taiwan to eastern China to southern Japan" next weekend.
Storms to continue as heat surges in northeastern US

Weather News - August 17, 2019, 5:52:35 AM EDT

Spotty thunderstorms will continue to erupt and unload torrential rain on parts of the northeastern United States as heat and humidity build into early next week.
Scientists make troubling discovery in rain falling over portion of US

Weather News - August 16, 2019, 1:18:35 PM EDT

The recent finding was "purely accidental," one scientist said. Meanwhile, a similar phenomenon was observed in Arctic snow leading another scientist to describe the discovery as "a real shock."